***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019*** - Page 37 - Historical Threads - 33andrain Jump to content
swamplover56

***Winter Countdown Thread 2018-2019***

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I'm with @PB GFI in that I think we do fairly well snowfall wise in December...break quite a bit in January, and then crush it in February.

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

I'm with @PB GFI in that I think we do fairly well snowfall wise in December...break quite a bit in January, and then crush it in February.

 

If I crash and take you with me I hope you forgive me. 

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1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

 

 13/14 had real staying power.

 

Image result for NOV 2013 EPO SST

 

Yes, the last 2 weeks at the surface heat has evolved N/E .  Could you please point me to the depth differences recently  ? 

 

Thank you. 

alaska_cdas1_anom  OCT 1 2018 EPO.png

w_coast_us_cdas1_anom OCT 22 2018 - EPO REGION.png

http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/pastanal.shtml  Not the best but you can see a contract between now and the 13-14 and 14-15

  • Global 150m depth-averaged temperature analysis, with data locations 
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2 hours ago, 33andrain said:

Here is my call for the NYC Winter of 2018-19. I expect at least one 12+" snow event this season. For now, I like the period between 2/4-2/9 for our biggest snow event of the season. I can also see something more significant popping in the 12/22-12/26 time frame. Would likely be limited to a SECS.

  • December:  Temps: N-BN   |   Precip: N   |   SN (Central Park): 7-10"
  • January:  Temps: AN-N   |   Precip: N   |   SN: 3-6"
  • February:  Temps: BN-N   |   Precip: AN   |   SN: 17-21"
  • March:  Temps: N-AN   |   Precip: AN   |   SN: 4-6"

37-43" of snow for Central Park or ~160% of normal

 

9E3D372C-A465-412C-A923-86778ADBBD83.jpeg

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2 hours ago, 33andrain said:

Here is my call for the NYC Winter of 2018-19. I expect at least one 12+" snow event this season. For now, I like the period between 2/4-2/9 for our biggest snow event of the season. I can also see something more significant popping in the 12/22-12/26 time frame. Would likely be limited to a SECS.

  • December:  Temps: N-BN   |   Precip: N   |   SN (Central Park): 7-10"
  • January:  Temps: AN-N   |   Precip: N   |   SN: 3-6"
  • February:  Temps: BN-N   |   Precip: AN   |   SN: 17-21"
  • March:  Temps: N-AN   |   Precip: AN   |   SN: 4-6"

37-43" of snow for Central Park or ~160% of normal

 

Wow , what the heck got into to you. 

 

I like it , I like it. 

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2 hours ago, 33andrain said:

Here is my call for the NYC Winter of 2018-19. I expect at least one 12+" snow event this season. For now, I like the period between 2/4-2/9 for our biggest snow event of the season. I can also see something more significant popping in the 12/22-12/26 time frame. Would likely be limited to a SECS.

  • December:  Temps: N-BN   |   Precip: N   |   SN (Central Park): 7-10"
  • January:  Temps: AN-N   |   Precip: N   |   SN: 3-6"
  • February:  Temps: BN-N   |   Precip: AN   |   SN: 17-21"
  • March:  Temps: N-AN   |   Precip: AN   |   SN: 4-6"

37-43" of snow for Central Park or ~160% of normal

I agree although I’m in the 45-55” range

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4 hours ago, earthlight said:

 

There is going to be a lot of weight on the Pacific side of things early in the winter, that is for sure. I agree with your overall thinking in terms of how things are weighted. There is too much focus generally on the NAO - some of our most impressive winters have come with a -EPO.

 

The warmth coming up in November could be really impressive. It remains to be seen exactly how the typhoon in the WPAC evolves, but there really is an excellent waveguide progressing if you are looking for above normal temperatures in the East. Nice expansion and jet extension pattern with a deep trough into the Western USA. 

 

This should allow for a large Southeast ridge to expand once again, unabated, especially with the pattern in the higher latitude Atlantic. I expect we will see above normal temperature departures across a large part of the Eastern US from 11/5 onward. It remains to be seen if this will oscillate back downward - and it very well may - but it sure does look impressive from a distance. Pretty confident November finishes + as a whole in NYC.

 

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46 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Wow , what the heck got into to you. 

 

I like it , I like it. 

Maybe he was hacked? ;)

 

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24 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I agree although I’m in the 45-55” range

I agree with your snowfall range. I am thinking around the same.

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32 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I agree although I’m in the 45-55” range

Could very well be...I admit, I am a bit spooked by what I am seeing for November into December. The concerns raised earlier today. If we can keep the ridge in the east only for a couple of weeks, and reload into our Winter pattern a couple of weeks sooner, we could be in for a December to remember.

 

29 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

I'm in the 70-80 range

Of course you are, Ant. Of course you are. :) 

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Hmm, I think the Weeklies are being slightly misrepresented above. They definitely do not have a deep deep Winter feel to them, but several troughs roll through during the month of November. It's not a wall to wall torch look at all. In fact, it doesn't look far removed from what would be a normal step down pattern progression any other Winter. I think hopes are super high this Winter for obvious reasons. Add to that, we know our time will be up soon...as we have cashed in for so many Winters over the past 20 years or so.

 

eps_m_z500a_noram_39.png

eps_m_z500a_noram_49.png

eps_m_z500a_noram_65.png

eps_m_z500a_noram_75.png

 

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23 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

 

Yup! Not shocked  - I expect a continued adjustment with warmer air on 7 day averages continuing through the back half of Novie especially from NYC south. We can stay one step ahead of these models if we continue to analyze the pattern in an unbiased fashion

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The Weeklies also appear to be building a -AO/-NAO couplet toward the end of November. This would fit with the October-December -NAO correlation posted by @brooklynwx99 the other day. The AO is definitely positive though, for the first three weeks of November. We're gonna warm for a period. I think that is okay. We're good in the long run. A lot of people are saying this Winter will be good. 

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