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Cole Baldwin

September 2018 Discussion and Observations

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August will end wet and that transitions into September. September will kick off with a wet start and will be in the 80s for most areas. Not quite as hot, but still humid. Here is the rainfall totals for the period (includes 0.2-1 inch of rain for the remainder of August).

EMCWF Total Precip Inches 1200z 082818 hr 168.png

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LR forecasts show the HP retrograde's wst to ears the rockies and temp come back to normal for Sept and if you also look at LR maps you see some fall temp's around the second week into the UMW and GL region knocking on the doorstep. Time will tell.

Warm Hotlantic waters and all this high soil.moisture laden content will feedback in the form of humidity and water vapor helping prop temps up a bit overall but again we shall see. My opinion here and add or correct if I am off here please and I shall listen.

JH showed this retrograde in a tweet , can post the gif for some reason.

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Not sure how rainy the holiday weekend is going to be (*though Friday afternoon/evening looks a little soggy)... I'm skeptical at the moment as ridging over the area doesn't look to budge too much. High pressure remains over the area & keeps the majority of convective parameters south of the area with it as well. Precipitable water values will be higher than normal across the region, but we'd need a decent mechanism of lift in order to get that to turn into rain. I think some brief showers may cause some headaches along the way, but I'm not sold on any washout right about now. I even expect to even see the big yellow orb overhead popping it's way through the mostly overcast skies periodically. There's still hope for the Labor Day weekend for us folks!

 

index.gifindex.gifindex.gif

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Good post @CCB!. Next week looks very hot as well. 

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17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Good post @CCB!. Next week looks very hot as well. 

"The return of the ridge!" 

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September always seems like a extension of summer now. Every year is a full blown out torch. 

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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

next week looks like an inferno

Yes, when can bona fide fall come? A/C better not blow.

Heat index 1200z082918.png

Max Temp hr 180 1200z082918.png

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#ForeverSummer ❤️ 

 

Lets have this go into October :) 

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48 minutes ago, SebagoWx said:

#ForeverSummer ❤️ 

 

Lets have this go into October :) 

Agreed. I'd take 80+ from April 15th - Nov 15th, then take below 40 in between.  Hoodie weather is stupid. 

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bona fide fall is October November.  Remember September is like March in the spring :)

 

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Well this should be pleasant.

image.png

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All I keep hearing is this will be the Hottest SEPT ever, an inferno, the end of the world....yadda yadda yadda. MAYBE it does end up being the warmest SEPT on record BUT....it will have to beat out SEPT 2015, which was the hottest SEPT on record in NYC, beating out SEPT 1961 by a full 1 degree.

 

SEPT 2015 had 2 separate 3 consecutive days of over 90 degree heat waves for NYC which was a first time that has happened. 

 

SEPT 1983 had 7 days of 90 or over including 99 on 9/11/1983 and the latest reading of 95 degrees or higher in my lifetime with a 97 degrees I believe around the 20th of SEPT of that year. 

 

The second half of SEPT looks much cooler from this juncture.....could that change again to warmer? perhaps but we shall see. 

 

SEPT 2015 was an inferno, I am amazed at how many people forgot how hot that month was. 

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It feels like **** outside. Muggy. 

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some September heat waves in NYC...three days or more 90+...

year.....dates.......max

2015...01-03.......93

2015...07-09.......97

2010...8/29-9/2...96

1985...04-06.......94

1983...05-07.......94

1980...8/31-9/2...96

1973...8/28-9/4...98

1961...8/31-9/2...95

1961...10-12.......94

1953...8/26-9/2...102

1952...11-13.......94

1931...09-11.......99

1929...01-04.......99

1915...14-16.......92

1914...21-23.......95

1895...20-24.......97

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