Hurricane Florence Mega Thread -- Forecast & Observations - Page 109 - Archived Weather Discussion - 33andrain Jump to content
Superstorm93

Hurricane Florence Mega Thread -- Forecast & Observations

Recommended Posts

18z Gfs doing the loop again, as it heads towards the coast on the Saturday 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man, Tidbits has been unusable most of the day. That's how you know the general public and media services are starting to really cover it.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z Gfs doing the loop again, as it heads towards the coast on the Saturday 

Unreal. It gets very close to a landfall around Hatteras, then goes back out to sea and loops back into Wilmington, NC. :o 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z Gfs doing the loop again, as it heads towards the coast on the Saturday 

If this comes close to verifying it would be horrifying. Destroys OBX and then hammers Wilmington after the loop 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

Unreal. It gets very close to a landfall around Hatteras, then goes back out to sea and loops back into Wilmington, NC. :o 

?

af57724a-8fbf-42c9-b369-f25c409e34f4.gif

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Unreal. It gets very close to a landfall around Hatteras, then goes back out to sea and loops back into Wilmington, NC. :o 

the issue here is that its too strong after sitting near the OBX for as long as it does. Its just not physically possible to be that strong. Not saying it would not be bad, but it would be a much weaker storm when it actually makes landfall.

 

If this is a true scenario, then score one for the GFS and hold off on the upgrade. But i still think it wants to turn this north too quickly.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

looks like our next plane is almost into the storm...

 

recon_AF302-0506A-FLORENCE.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, rb924119 said:

 

Im not saying to take it verbatim. All I'm saying is that in the last few years it has performed just as well, if not better than any other model within its temporal range, and I think it is helpful to at least just look at its progression and see what, if any, differences, exist between it and other guidance. And as I said before, just because other "experts" don't use it, doesn't mean we can't/shouldn't. I have had the same forecast track of Florence out for almost a week now, so obviously I didn't use it (yet). But that also doesn't mean that I just completely don't pay attention to it once it starts coming into range. Whether or not others use it doesn't matter to me because I'm not them. I don't know what their forecast procedures or methodologies are, nor do I know their reasons for them. If they want to completely disregard something then that's on them, but I'd rather keep an open mind, figure out where a model can/can't be useful, and apply bias corrections accordingly. Remember, these are models; tools to help us get a final product. Just because you have a Phillips head screw doesn't mean you can't use a flat-head screw driver to get the job done. So to answer your a question, yes, I will absolutely look at the NAM as it continues to come into better range and factor it in with my previous ideas, current guidance, and newly formed ideas, to make any adjustments necessary to my initial forecast track.

 

Lastly, I don't appreciate being frowned upon because I do something differently. I may disagree with your sentiments about the NAM, but I certainly don't think they make you any less of a forecaster, as you insinuated about me above. I try to add value and insight, and provide open, unbiased, and complete analysis of what I think and why, and if you don't agree with how I do things then I can take my contributions elsewhere.

I know I speak for others in saying that your contributions are graciously accepted & appreciated. I've learned some quality stuff from you over your tenure here. I'd call that a level-headed & sensible approach. I too generally look for early clues at 500 & 250mb then see if the early changes are reflected in the global suite. I suppose some of the responses were more objectionable to the long range maps, but I understand that's not really your approach here. 

 

Situations like these can raise nerves a bit, but we're all here for similar reasons. I hope you decide to stick around and chime in more, I'm looking forward to further contributions!

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Storm Sliders said:

What website is that from?

CIMSS :) 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Nice rainstorm from the remnants

What day is it showing? Supposed to be going to the jets game on Sunday. Hope it won’t rain. Thanks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im noticing a lot of wobbles but its still on the projected path 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, DualJet said:

the issue here is that its too strong after sitting near the OBX for as long as it does. Its just not physically possible to be that strong. Not saying it would not be bad, but it would be a much weaker storm when it actually makes landfall.

 

If this is a true scenario, then score one for the GFS and hold off on the upgrade. But i still think it wants to turn this north too quickly.

Yes agreed. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×