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dmillz25

October 2018 Discussion & Observations

33andrain

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Looks like October starts off warm then maybe a cool down second week?

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The ECMWF monthly control ens output is painting what could be another above normal precip month for October for much of the eastern US, all the way into New England. The 9/27 00z run has a fairly large system impacting the Mid-Atlantic and New England on 10/12-13. The #BSR valid 10/12 is also showing a similar system. The ECMWF monthly control overall for October is showing potential systems on 10/9, 10/12, and 10/27, that could dump the majority of Octobers precip, this, however, doesn't include any additional impacts from any tropical systems that would come into play. I imagine that much of this precip would be rain, but would not be surprised if some snow falls around the 10/12 & 10/27 systems in some higher elevations of New England. 

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10 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Looks like October starts off warm then maybe a cool down second week?

The first two weeks look very  mild with the southeast ridge. The good news is the -epo is really chilling down Canada and the upper Midwest. At the end of the eps run last night you can see the ridge pushing west, with cooler temps bleeding east. 

8CB90F77-DA00-4886-B06F-4AA53E5D80FC.png

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The first two weeks look very  mild with the southeast ridge. The good news is the -epo is really chilling down Canada and the upper Midwest. At the end of the eps run last night you can see the ridge pushing west, with cooler temps bleeding east. 

8CB90F77-DA00-4886-B06F-4AA53E5D80FC.png

Looks like the -epo will be something to be reckoned with this winter. I just hope for some -NAO action 

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I have been on board for a warmer fall but nothing extreme though. I think the bottom falls out in mid to late November right around Thanksgiving.

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9 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Looks like the -epo will be something to be reckoned with this winter. I just hope for some -NAO action 

I believe the NAO will cooperate and be negative for much of the 2018-2019 winter. I am liking the 2009-2010 Qbo similarities to the current period and how it looks to be trending for DJFM. A negative Qbo has strong connections to negative NAO and blocking. Finger crossed! Also, I am by no means as knowledgeable as some of the great minds here on 33 that have studied teleconnections and the major pattern drivers much longer than I have, but I do have a bit of knowledge on the subject and am constantly learning from 33 U and other outlets.

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7 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Looks like the -epo will be something to be reckoned with this winter. I just hope for some -NAO action 

I posted in the winter thread that thewarm water in the GOA and off the wester ward Aleutians are going to help this winter produce a N EPO. Problem right now is the N PNA that is blocking that up a bit and the warm waters off the NA that are feeding the WAR. This will be aN aid for winter storms but also can be a hindernace once relaxation in the jet/pattern. So we are mild the first two weeks so it seems whike Canada builds a glacier a's it is projected and we go from there. 

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Don’t put away those A/C window units just yet...

5ACE70E6-08A9-4CC9-ACCB-7DE00D65C9EE.png

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Hopefully, around mid month we see a change 

A5F98D5F-8E56-442A-8A94-9B4DDB69D5E6.png

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hopefully, around mid month we see a change 

A5F98D5F-8E56-442A-8A94-9B4DDB69D5E6.png

I am thinking we start a more substantial "step down" process beginning the second half of October until the bottom completely falls out in mid-late November. Regardless of temps I think things will remain active storm wise with the exception of the next week or so which look fairly quiet.

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8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I am thinking we start a more substantial "step down" process beginning the second half of October until the bottom completely falls out in mid-late November. Regardless of temps I think things will remain active storm wise with the exception of the next week or so which look fairly quiet.

The ECMWF monthly control output is showing what could be quite a stormy October.

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

9558F7EF-FB0A-4128-AB24-6C4AC2D56C6C.png

Transition

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nh_f144.png.14917cde290bdb92bef23fe5f7c1dfe8.png

 

Interesting to see the modeling shift that has occurred for October. Almost all modeling had raised heights over Western Canada for the first two weeks, but a more impressive block is now expected to take hold north of Alaska. Looks like there will be persistent troughs on the west coast for next week and warm temperatures on the east coast. Beyond that, the picture is a big murky, but the WAR has been a consistent feature for awhile.

 

This may be a bit off topic, but what would you guys recommend for a paid weather model service? I have never bought a subscription and with the euro now available for 4 runs a day, I'm ready to make the jump.

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Until the AMO goes N or BN we will have summer like Falls and winters that last into spring. The oceans are a cooling overall.

We micro the pattern instead of the bigger picture IMO.

MJO in phases 8,1 2 means an AN october - give me this in DJF we are teh opposite.

If teh second half of Rocktober is as weeklies say then we are transitioning

Just look at the glacier building in Canada and all the green and blue in the majority 95% would you say?

Here's the globe temps .15C AN look at the blue over GLand and Green over Canada - that is exciting for our winter prospects later adn it will continue

 

DoWq0IoW0AIvhZ9.jpg

SST

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

The red again in the GOA and Aleutians will and is producing the N WPO and EPO couplet.

gefs_epo_12.png

 

gefs_wpo_12.png

 

 

 

SOLAR MINIMUM SUNSPOT: Dust off your solar telescopes. There's a new sunspot facing Earth. "After two weeks with no sunspots at all, AR2723 is a welcome sight"

WOW!!!

 

2018 total: 158 days (58%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%) 
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

 

And where is all the attention to the Ring of Fire and the EQ and Tsunami killing hundreds possibly thousands - hmmm due to...................the above and another coronal hole ejection about to hit Spaceship Earth in a couple of days:

DoWmsfEXcAUiAA9.jpg

 

 

My .02. LOL

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1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

 

The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Especially with such a strong -EPO and cold signal just above the border, the -QBO and weak solar. Seeing this on models in October actually makes me more excited for the Winter. Makes me think anomalous patterns once again. Anomalous patterns have been blizzarding over us more often than not over the past 20 years.

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3 hours ago, 33andrain said:

The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Especially with such a strong -EPO and cold signal just above the border, the -QBO and weak solar. Seeing this on models in October actually makes me more excited for the Winter. Makes me think anomalous patterns once again. Anomalous patterns have been blizzarding over us more often than not over the past 20 years.

AllSNow posted yesterday Flip mid month - we'll take teh first or upfront warmth and then transition the second half. If this model has a clue it will be a mood changer for Tony and teh rest of teh snow weenies. Alaska roasts, well not really.

Dob4FC1UUAAO2U2.jpg

 

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5 minutes ago, amugs said:

AllSNow posted yesterday Flip mid month - we'll take teh first or upfront warmth and then transition the second half. If this model has a clue it will be a mood changer for Tony and teh rest of teh snow weenies. Alaska roasts, well not really.

Dob4FC1UUAAO2U2.jpg

 

I think there will be widespread chances for snow showers and more steady light snow as soon as the second week of November. 

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