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October 2018 Discussion & Observations

33andrain

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the first 15 days in October 1954 had 8 days in the 80's...but between heat spells there was briefly record cold in the upper 30's...That's something we don't see any more...Hurricane Hazel also came in October 54...

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39 minutes ago, uncle w said:

the first 15 days in October 1954 had 8 days in the 80's...but between heat spells there was briefly record cold in the upper 30's...That's something we don't see any more...Hurricane Hazel also came in October 54...

That can happen this year.

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Time to start paying attention to the tropics again...

 

 

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Current temp 78/DP 69/RH 65% 

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   Mesoscale Discussion 1510
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0126 PM CDT Tue Oct 02 2018

   Areas affected...Western/central Pennsylvania...Eastern Ohio...far
   northern West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021826Z - 022030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Initial convective development is occurring in eastern
   Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Storm coverage is expected to increase by
   3-4 EDT. Initial semi-discrete storm mode will be capable of all
   severe hazards. A WW may be needed in the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Current visible satellite shows relatively few breaks
   within the cloud cover across western/central Pennsylvania and
   eastern Ohio. Areas that have remained relatively clear have heated
   to the mid- to upper-70s, contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg. Areas of
   cumulus development along/near a confluence axis in eastern Ohio and
   western Pennsylvania shows that convective inhibition has nearly
   been eliminated. With the approach of an upstream mid-level wave,
   storm coverage should continue to increase by 3-4 PM EDT. Strong
   flow aloft is contributing to effective deep-layer shear of 30-40
   kts. Initial storm development is expected to be semi-discrete,
   posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail.
   Modest mid-level lapse rates should limit overall hail potential. At
   low levels, per radar VAD profiles within the discussion area, while
   hodograph curvature is modest, strong flow just off the surface has
   contributed to 100-200 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. Given the wind fields
   and overall moist environment, the strongest discrete storms will be
   capable of producing a tornado or two. A WW may be needed within the
   next hour or two.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 10/02/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
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Tornado Warning just NE of Poughkeepsie - Notable rotation signature evident.

 

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   Mesoscale Discussion 1512
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Tue Oct 02 2018

   Areas affected...Northern New Jersey...Southeast New York...Southern
   New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021910Z - 022115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A wind damage threat and marginal tornado threat will be
   possible this afternoon from northern New Jersey northeastward into
   southern New England. Weather watch issuance can not be ruled out
   across the region.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a warm front located
   from southeast New York extending eastward across Connecticut.
   Convection is developing near the boundary in southeast New York
   along the leading edge of a band of large-scale ascent evident on
   water vapor imagery. Ahead of the convection, surface dewpoints in
   the New York Vicinity and in far southern New England are generally
   in the mid to upper 60s F which is contributing to the development
   of weak instability. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Boston
   and New York City have moderate to strong deep-layer shear with 0-3
   km storm relative helicity around 250 m2/s2. This may be enough for
   a marginal tornado threat with cells that interact with the warm
   front. Wind damage will also be possible but the threat should
   remain isolated due to the weak instability.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 10/02/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
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Little farther west* of most posters here, PDS - damn!

Tornado Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
315 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAC039-021945-
/O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181002T1945Z/
Crawford PA-
315 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR WESTERN
CRAWFORD COUNTY...

At 314 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near Pymatuning North, or 16 miles south of Conneaut, moving east at
25 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to
         homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and
         vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Linesville around 320 PM EDT.
  Harmonsburg around 335 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Conneaut Lake, Conneautville and Conneaut Lakeshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4169 8052 4178 8049 4180 8027 4157 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 281DEG 23KT 4172 8047

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.00IN
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