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Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

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Eye looks like it's trying to come out. Convection wrapping up on both sides of the core. 

 

 

goes16_vis_14L_201810081823.jpg

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

F99B4154-36B3-4212-823C-456790524AF8.png

Hopefully it trends west for here

 

Need interesting weather up here

 

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1 minute ago, Snowman11 said:

Hopefully it trends west for here

 

Need interesting weather up here

 

Had enough rainy and gloomy days. 

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4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Eye looks like it's trying to come out. Convection wrapping up on both sides of the core. 

 

 

goes16_vis_14L_201810081823.jpg

 

Yep , and so it begins.

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12z UKMET:

 

image.png

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Two major hot towers 

 

I'd be shocked if this wasn't at least a 85-90 mph hurricane by tonight. 

 

mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05_20181008184428.gif

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One thing that I have noticed is that the 12z FV3 is much faster than the 12z ECMWF. I have not checked any mslp or intensity, but it seems that the Euro is much stronger than the FV3.

FV3fv3p_z500_vort_us_13.png

850ecmwf_uv850_vort_us_4.png

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6z/12z comparison.

eps.gif

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HMON & HWRF seem to be riding the ECMWF, unless I am missing something.

hmon_ref_14L_24.png72.png

hwrf_ref_14L_24.png72.png

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Up to 80 mph at 5pm 

 

AL, 14, 2018100818,   , BEST,   0, 217N,  851W,  70,  978 
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Anyone look at NC flooding issues from Michael as he heads there after landfall?  Looks like 4-8” possible on euro, not sure what flood guidance is for rivers are since Florence flooded area.  Assume won’t be bad due to quick movement of storm thankfully.

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50 minutes ago, rb924119 said:

I can see how this system tracks further northwest than currently progged by some guidance (EURO/NAM/etc.) taking it southeast of the Delmarva. With a rapidly developing tropical cyclone so close by to an already amplified eastern U.S. ridge, anomalously warm SSTs in the western Atlantic, and general Northern Hemispheric synoptic pattern that supports a strong eastern U.S. ridge bolstered by the MJO Phase 1, this should allow the remnant circulation of Michael to trend further northwestward in future model runs in my opinion, such that it passes either over or very nearby our region in the end. The role of the cyclone should be further aid in enhancing the eastern ridge via its intense diabatic outflow and feedback effects positively interacting with the other factors outlined above. Just my two cents lol

Well, Sir, your two cents makes a lot of flippin' sense. I have been seeing a Delmarva or even Cape May run for a day now. I have been scouring ECMWF, EPS, and FV3 500mb hgt/vort, Streamline, and  Jet and was seeing this, but couldn't break it down like you did rb924119. This is just another reason why 33 & Rain is becoming the fountain of weather analysis knowledge.

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Next recon mission leaving soon, won't be in until 6pm Eastern with another plane in around 7pm 

 

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42       FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
       A. 08/2230Z                   A. 08/2330Z,09/0530Z
       B. NOAA2 0614A MICHAEL        B. AFXXX 0714A MICHAEL
       C. 08/2000Z                   C. 08/2130Z
       D. 22.9N 86.8W                D. 23.2N 86.8W
       E. 08/2200Z TO 09/0300Z       E. 08/2300Z TO 09/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 
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would of been interesting to see them in there now

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