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Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

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MW pass from about an hour ago suggests that the inner core of Michael remains open to the NW, but satellite data has shown a massive convective burst rotating around the center. 

 

20181008.1846.gw1.89hbt.14L.MICHAEL.70kts.978mb.21.7N.85.1W.86pc.jpg

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Look at those towers showing this RI - WOW!!

 

 

 

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15z RPM makes landfall as a strong Category 3 

 

 

mgWeb_WRF_20181008-150000_ASE_ECONUS_F00483000_PhurrWinds_R4km.png

mgWeb_WRF_20181008-150000_ASE_ECONUS_F00480000_PsatRadar_R4km.png

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20 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

MW pass from about an hour ago suggests that the inner core of Michael remains open to the NW, but satellite data has shown a massive convective burst rotating around the center. 

 

20181008.1846.gw1.89hbt.14L.MICHAEL.70kts.978mb.21.7N.85.1W.86pc.jpg

Ole' Levi Cowan nailed this, yesterday he said that once the elongated gyre that Michael was in rotated to a North-South orientation we should start seeing the convection wrap around.

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IMG_5347.PNG

 

GFS shows a fairly rapid deintensification, and straight road to cold core cyclone status (no warm seclusion). 

 

UKMO shows the warm seclusion talked about by some members here, some big warm seclusion on that model, with it's intense track staying in the 980s, and then 970s not far off Long Island. Admittedly this is 00z, 12z should be out on this any moment, but it should show a similar track and intensity.

 

IMG_5348.PNG

 

Watch how long it stays warm core, even if it is deemed within the shallow category as it moves out to the Atlantic.

IMG_5349.PNG

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Oh boy shit getting real if he is coming to town!!

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, 33andrain said:

Wow. Seemingly not as strong though.

Wow! and effects with some of those tracks into the Gulf Of Maine. I can see a trip to Cape Elizabeth to watch the surf !

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Just now, Allsnow said:

5873E0CA-0092-492C-94D9-817649A9229F.png

Thank you for this. I have an anxious dam keeper here on the lake wondering if he should start letting some water out of the lake.

Anything under 1.5 inches and were good to go. anything over we need to dump fast. 

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Just getting caught up on this one. Looks like a bad situation developing for the gulf coast. 

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The sooner this bombs out the better, ups the chances of it hitting ERC and some shear as it approaches the coast.

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 082355
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 85.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES 
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