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Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

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2 hours ago, SebagoWx said:

Thank you for this. I have an anxious dam keeper here on the lake wondering if he should start letting some water out of the lake.

Anything under 1.5 inches and were good to go. anything over we need to dump fast. 

 

Sebago dont mail this in but keep a close eye since there will be a PRE event that will add to totals that models dont see this far out

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HH have permission to go into Cuban airspace

 

This was a huge issue with quite a few storms over the past couple of decades 

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Get out of dodge PEEPS!

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3 minutes ago, NSFW Weather Guy said:

HWRF is a monster... Wow

 

Verbatim a strong Category 3

 

hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_14.png

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I also crushes our area with heavy rain/wind... with the approaching shortwave interaction LP off the coast 

0071FD4D-DE45-4D24-A822-69457B7CBFED.png

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 090255
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 85.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES 

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NHC

 

" Given the aforementioned wind data and the possibility of locally enhanced winds due to the mesovortices, the initial intensity has only been increased to 80 kt rather than 85 kt, which the NOAA flight-level wind data would typically support."

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Icon initialized 17mb too high and was the strongest run yet I believe for it. 

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Gfs moving it slower and stronger 

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Still like like a mess on vis. 

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9 hours ago, mbaer1970 said:

Well, Sir, your two cents makes a lot of flippin' sense. I have been seeing a Delmarva or even Cape May run for a day now. I have been scouring ECMWF, EPS, and FV3 500mb hgt/vort, Streamline, and  Jet and was seeing this, but couldn't break it down like you did rb924119. This is just another reason why 33 & Rain is becoming the fountain of weather analysis knowledge.

Many thanks for your kind remarks, @mbaer1970!! I try to aid in furthering meaningful discussion when I can, and agree that this is a great forum!

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The latest EC 00z run GIFed.

IMG_5358.GIF

 

The low pressure and frequent RI isn't the only interesting thing about Michael. The relatively fast speed of the storm is noteworthy IMO.

 

IMG_5355.PNG

Max gusts heading towards 120-135 knots or 138-155mph. Certainly a very strong storm heading the way of the Panhandle.

 

IMG_5354.PNG

Another thing worthy of noting is UKMET's sticking with it's bold intensity forecast over the continent(not for landfall, EC beats it in that by a mile), advocating for some warm seclusion over the continent, track a tad north I reckon, sending decent precip over the coast along the NE. Will be interesting to see how this progresses, EC not far off with it's pressure figures over the continent there too. UKMO is certainly a quiet underdog, particularly in terms of tropical meteorology, but also in winter too IMO. Definitely something to watch, in addition to the quickly improving FV3.

 

FV3 has been brought back south closer to it's older brother's track, still a bit further North, close to UKMET. EC a bit further south than GFS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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IMG_5362_zpsesofea1y.gif

So beautiful...

 

 

Somewhat of an eye formed and then went back in. Reckon the real deal isn't far away IMO.

Plenty of convection occurring too. 

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