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Historic Category 4 Hurricane Michael

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1 hour ago, rb924119 said:

The following is a quote of myself from prior to Michael's landfall, then followed by some further thoughts as to why I was completely out of phase with reality, for those of you interested:

 

"You know? Call me crazy, but I don’t think I buy intensification through landfall. In fact, I can see a plateauing and then start of a decay coming into landfall and my reason is the following:

If you look at pressure anomalies, you will see how there are strong negative anomalies rapidly overtaking the CONUS as the midwestern system continues advancing in the wake of the departing high. This will likely distort the lower-level convergence such that the core will not be able to maintain its current progression, even with the other favorable atmospheric conditions. Remember, the stronger these systems become, the more perfect the environment surrounding them needs to be in order to maintain and/or strengthen them further. In my opinion, I think this disruption in the lower-level pressure field will outweigh the environmental conditions as it approaches the coast, and lead to a plateauing and then late start at a decay prior to landfall. Nonetheless, it will still be a powerful and destructive storm, but in the end, think it will fall short of current progs. We shall certainly see, one way or the other."

 

Thinking back more on this, and about why I might have been looking at this the wrong way, it struck me: This system was DIFFERENT from other systems this season, and from other systems where I have used this similar thought process. Obviously each system is different, but there were a few this season where I distinctly remember successfully using this parameter as a metric to gauge if a system would strengthen or not as it approached the U.S. mainland, or wherever else their destinations were (some were just out in the open water). Anyway, these previous systems were all headed directly into broad regions of anomalously high pressure, thereby experiencing enhanced lower-level convergence. HOWEVER, their forward speeds remained relatively unchanged as they progressed. Michael, though; was different. Even though Michael was headed into a region with significantly lower than normal pressure anomalies across the eastern CONUS, its forward speed was steadily but rapidly INCREASING as it drew nearer to the U.S. Because of this, I hypothesize that this helped to overcome the impact that I originally expected **with regard to the role of lower-level pressure anomalies interfering with the lower-level convergence around the storm's circulation**, as the increasing forward speed helped to negate the lack of lower-level convergence/divergence caused by the system coming through the Central Plains. Now, the other environmental conditions could have simply overwhelmed the surface, but I suspect not entirely, as again, the stronger these systems become, the more perfect their environment needs to be. However, this will be an interesting thought to test on future systems to see if it might have merit. Anyway, a little post-storm reflection never hurts.

You had a more sound theory at the time than mine. You made a really good case against continued strengthening there.

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Homestead and Mexico Beach sit somewhat side by side in history now as the 2 communities that will go down as being completely devastated by a Major Hurricane in that state.  

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4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

 

if I saw this guy in the street I wouldn't recognize him unless his head was tilted...

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Not sure if this was the exact camera (since this is a GoPro & we were watching a live feed) that @drz1111 & I were looking at in Mexico Beach. But it seems to be in the same spot. Absolutely incredible how fast the surge came up.

 

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10 hours ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

Multiple reports on this - will be interesting to see the Tyndall AFB report...

 

 

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5 hours ago, CCB! said:

Not sure if this was the exact camera (since this is a GoPro & we were watching a live feed) that @drz1111 & I were looking at in Mexico Beach. But it seems to be in the same spot. Absolutely incredible how fast the surge came up.

 

One of the best videos I think I’ve ever seen. This was definitely the first widespread social media hurricane.

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19 hours ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

 

That's why when that idiot was posting wind gusts from around the entire state that didnt include any readings from Tyndall east to Mexico Beach I shook my head.

 

Until you capture the exact 10 to 15 mile crossing you dont capture the severity.

 

 

I still get cant past the victory lap he took a full day before people were able to get into the most devastated areas and measure the damage. 

 

 

We should feel very fortunate that the death toll was low and that's a testament to great work of the NHC alerting residents as to what was actually coming. 

Had anyone in that area been told by Government officials that only an 80 mph storm was coming many would have stayed and we wouldn't be just talking about wrecked structures here.

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37 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

That's why when that idiot was posting wind gusts from around the entire state that didnt include any readings from Tyndall east to Mexico Beach I shook my head.

 

Until you capture the exact 10 to 15 mile crossing you dont capture the severity.

 

 

I still get cant past the victory lap he took a full day before people were able to get into the most devastated areas and measure the damage. 

 

 

We should feel very fortunate that the death toll was low and that's a testament to great work of the NHC alerting residents as to what was actually coming. 

Had anyone in that area been told by Government officials that only an 80 mph storm was coming many would have stayed and we wouldn't be just talking about wrecked structures here.

There's still thousands missing. :( 

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