[Eastern US] November 2018: Consolidated Discussion & Obs - Winter Countdown - Thread Archive - 33andrain Jump to content
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[Eastern US] November 2018: Consolidated Discussion & Obs - Winter Countdown

33andrain

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Look how close to the 02/03 analog we are running in the early going.

 

Nov is about a week displaced but those SSTs are giving you the same signature.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2002.png

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2018.png

eps_t850a_5d_noram_21-2.png

eps_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

eps_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

ending_Nov_19.gif

nov_26.gif

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@PB GFI can you check out my post in the October thread...thanks 

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We look to open November AN and then wait to see if a turn back to cooler materializes.

 

 

eps_t850a_5d_noram_61-1.png

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_65.png

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After we open November AN , look for the first real cold outbreak to the season to center itself in the UMW / GL and then extend east around the 10th.

The Control run although a low res product is what could happen as Canada is snow covered so the anomalies could get forces under and create some decent deviations from normal.

 

eps_t850a_5d_c_noram_61.png

eps_t850a_5d_noram_61-2.png

 

 

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_65-1.png

 

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The new gfs has 3 coastal lows throughout the run.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

 

True.  Around these parts I dont start thinking winter until around turkey day really.  Then it is on....hopefully 

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2 minutes ago, Frankdp23 said:

True.  Around these parts I dont start thinking winter until around turkey day really.  Then it is on....hopefully 

I agree with this, I am not really a fan of any extreme cold/snow prior to mid November. After that its all good.

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20 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I agree with this, I am not really a fan of any extreme cold/snow prior to mid November. After that its all good.

Yeah and considering the average high temps around here are still in the mid 50's for the middle of the month, we should never really expect much yet.

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Pretty sick 180 knot upper level jet streak over the region early Saturday morning. Parts of eastern PA and western NJ could be in for some very heavy showers and thunderstorms. 

 

ecmwfued---usmercator-78-C-jetwindkcounty.png

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The 12z GFS looks pretty wet from Thursday night thru Saturday morning at least. Looks like an active period moving forward with another storm around Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. 

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At the end of next week we should see a decent cold shot after the cutter. It will produce temps the lowest they been since last winter 

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You daily solar update Gents!!

Can we get past unlucky #13?? - 61 more days left 

only 7 out of the 31 days had sunspots this month  - from the buildup last year through this year wonder why we are seeing a spike in geomagnetic activity (Volcanic eruptions and EQ's??)

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 13 days 
2018 total: 179 days (59%)

2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%) 
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

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5 hours ago, Snowman11 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

Seems like there is a signal for a storm with more cold to work with around that timeframe.

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4 minutes ago, Archerdude44 said:

Seems like there is a signal for a storm with more cold to work with around that timeframe.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

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Day 9 - 13 matches the EPS , the flip has been there for a few days now.

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_9.png

 

But where the EPS flattens the ridge and starts to torch the CONUS by day 14 / 15 , the GEFS  keeps the cold coming

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_12.png

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