[Eastern US] November 2018: Consolidated Discussion & Obs - Winter Countdown - Page 173 - Thread Archive - 33andrain Jump to content
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[Eastern US] November 2018: Consolidated Discussion & Obs - Winter Countdown

33andrain

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17 minutes ago, LI_Weather said:

EPS

C629CA31-9D56-471C-A745-1586B449307E.jpeg

4D22F41C-FB30-4448-ABC1-36902E05960B.jpeg

With what some of our blue taggers are saying I like that the eps is showing heavy snow as far north as it is in the indie ensembles. Gives us some room for a south correction

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GFS upper air is flatter than 12z. Unlikely to be a coastal hugger this time. Whether it’s a snowstorm or OTS remains to be seen.

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complete stream miss on GFS, also, timing is still debatable between guidance, i’d be concerned if we weren’t in fantasy range lol

 

 

GFS compared to 00z FV3

DE690A36-1D9E-4D9C-8518-F4AF5086E098.png

 

CAAA103D-7266-492F-B4E8-CAC025FB66A8.png

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Just now, NSFW Weather Guy said:

complete stream miss on GFS... i’d be concerned if we weren’t in fantasy range lol

 

 

GFS compared to 00z FV3

DE690A36-1D9E-4D9C-8518-F4AF5086E098.png

 

Gfs always struggles with coastal storms

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GFS is OTS, developing one of those weird double barrel structures where the main SLP jumps to the convection to the east. Likely convective feedback with that but none of that matters at this range, especially not on the 18z GFS. Models have the setup and the storm, I believe we are just about at the point where we start talking about possible storm track scenarios, as we know the storm will form.

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6 minutes ago, Archerdude44 said:

GFS is OTS, developing one of those weird double barrel structures where the main SLP jumps to the convection to the east. Likely convective feedback with that but none of that matters at this range, especially not on the 18z GFS. Models have the setup and the storm, I believe we are just about at the point where we start talking about possible storm track scenarios, as we know the storm will form.

 

wouldnt look too much at slp... your not coming up the coast with this 500 look 

EB90771B-1F1F-41B4-840E-342F3297D485.png

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6 minutes ago, NSFW Weather Guy said:

 

wouldnt look too much at slp... your not coming up the coast with this 500 look 

EB90771B-1F1F-41B4-840E-342F3297D485.png

Suppression depression

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8 minutes ago, NSFW Weather Guy said:

 

wouldnt look too much at slp... your not coming up the coast with this 500 look 

EB90771B-1F1F-41B4-840E-342F3297D485.png

I know, just saying that we know a storm is coming, so now we have to start discussing the possible tracks. Suppression is the way we miss out on this storm, not a cutter, as you and others have also stated. But there is just as much a chance it comes up the coast. 

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