[Eastern US] November 2018: Consolidated Discussion & Obs - Winter Countdown - Page 34 - Thread Archive - 33andrain Jump to content
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[Eastern US] November 2018: Consolidated Discussion & Obs - Winter Countdown

33andrain

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Anthony is going to hate this,  

eps_z500a_nh_61-3.png

eps_t850a_noram_61-2.png

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6 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Anthony is going to hate this,  

eps_z500a_nh_61-3.png

eps_t850a_noram_61-2.png

Hopefully mid December and on it’s the main show 

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3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Hopefully mid December and on it’s the main show 

 

Our March snow totals have been going up recently so a Dec 15 - Mar 15 winter is fine by me. 

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20 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

I agree Tim , I think there could be multiple 60 degree days during our warm up.

And I think the break is a solid 2 weeks plus.

After the rider flattens out the trough gets dumped out west , these take time to reset the pattern so I dont think it's just some transient warmth

 

That SE ridge will mean business.

Yep. You know once you see the troughs diving into the west the east is going to get warm. I absolutely agree it will take time. We could see this last into the first few weeks of December 

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2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Our March snow totals have been going up recently so a Dec 15 - Mar 15 winter is fine by me. 

I am fine with this and certainly possible this winter. Like I have been saying all along, I am still of the idea that we will see at least one significant/major snowfall in December but until then as long as the pattern stays active its all good. I am curious to see what Larry Cosgrove will say in his weekly newsletter tonight since he has been on the warmer train for the second half of November and most of December.

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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. You know once you see the troughs diving into the west the east is going to get warm. I absolutely agree it will take time. We could see this last into the first few weeks of December 

 

I had 1st opined that I believed the 20th - 10th would be an AN period  then JB made the argument to me that he thought the trough would be back in the mid section of the country and heading east by the 1st.

 

I should have stuck with my original forecast , because these never reverse in 10 days.

 

It's no big deal , we are in early November and no one should rush here.

I think the winter ahead will be a good one.

 

It's a break and maybe the Yankees make 2 good moves and I can focus on that during this nice upcoming stretch. 

 

 

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Wow! Snow squall warning in Central PA.

image.png.d5adc111a37868cffaef6cef194f0446.png

SNOW SQUALL WARNING
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

PAC087-109-119-101311-
/O.CON.KCTP.SQ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-181110T1330Z/
757 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018
Mifflin County-Snyder County-Union County-

...A SNOW SQUALL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM EST FOR
NORTHEASTERN MIFFLIN...WESTERN SNYDER AND SOUTHERN UNION COUNTIES...

At 757 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located from near
Mifflinburg westward to near Poe Valley State Park, moving east at
55 mph.

HAZARD...Brief whiteout conditions. Zero visibility in snow and
blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar and webcams.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.




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Then the Canadian is off its rocker compared to the EPS!

gem-ens_z500a_nhem_63.png

 

GEFS .

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_62.png

The interesting aspect is the -EPO region on these maps plus the EPS. Problem is the trough off the WC, these two above weaker  compared to EPS.

To 33&Rains point

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28 minutes ago, Newman said:

Wow! Snow squall warning in Central PA.

image.png.d5adc111a37868cffaef6cef194f0446.png


SNOW SQUALL WARNING
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
757 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018

PAC087-109-119-101311-
/O.CON.KCTP.SQ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-181110T1330Z/
757 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2018
Mifflin County-Snyder County-Union County-

...A SNOW SQUALL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM EST FOR
NORTHEASTERN MIFFLIN...WESTERN SNYDER AND SOUTHERN UNION COUNTIES...

At 757 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located from near
Mifflinburg westward to near Poe Valley State Park, moving east at
55 mph.

HAZARD...Brief whiteout conditions. Zero visibility in snow and
blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar and webcams.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.




I was actually just watching the progression of the squall as it is coming into the Hazleton area.  It is actually quite impressive as it moves in.  I was watching it on the Penndot camera at I 81 and route 93 so it is coming towards the Poconos now.

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19 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Just laid down a bunch of grass seed so will welcome the 60s when they arrive. I still think the warm up will be muted though. Just a few days much AN. 

Maybe call me an optimist, but at 360 hours away a crap ton can change and wouldnt take much for more of a “press” by this ridge into the NAO region leaving our area more seasonal.

 

 

2CA9B929-8D10-44E9-A951-EBF4448B977B.jpeg

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First flakes of the year here. Quick snowshower. 

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

It’s snowing!!!!!!!!!

Leaves here LOL- makes my fall clean up easier with the wind blowing the leaves off the trees and down my block LOL!!!

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First flakes, Scotch Plains, November 10th, 9:35am ET. Woohoo!!!

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On 11/8/2018 at 4:48 PM, 33andrain said:

Would request you to help me out here. What's this about?

Oh sure.  I was responding to rb924119 a little further up in the feed on the Tues-Wed storm event.  He mentioned that latent heat release would win out and thunderstorms would occur in the SE.  I was just wondering if there would be thundersnow (since the GOM has warm SSTs) depending on the track. However, it looks like it won't be a coastal and the trough looks to break off in the GOM.  Sorry for the confusion.  I'm not sure how the comment got here.

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