November 2018 Discussion & Observations - Winter Countdown - Page 2 - Weather Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
dmillz25

November 2018 Discussion & Observations - Winter Countdown

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6 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Day 9 - 13 matches the EPS , the flip has been there for a few days now.

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_9.png

 

But where the EPS flattens the ridge and starts to torch the CONUS by day 14 / 15 , the GEFS  keeps the cold coming

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_12.png

If we get the -nao it will help keep our area near normal while the rest of the CONUS is flooded with pac air. Need that Alaska low to move out to raise the pna. Obviously, this is referring to after the cold shot we get next week 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

If we get the -nao it will help keep our area near normal while the rest of the CONUS is flooded with pac air. Need that Alaska low to move out to raise the pna. Obviously, this is referring to after the cold shot we get next week 

 

I think the the 1st shot between the 8th - 13th  ( a day either side ) will be a real cold shot from the UMW into the lakes and then on into the N/E.

 

Looks like the weeklies develop the neg around the 18th out near the Aleutians.  

 

So I am curious what those middle 5 days look like....  

 

 

 

 

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The GFS OP for the cold shot is flat out cold 

 

Crazy cold change on the morning GFS. The new week 2 forecast from the op run is incredibly cold with nearly 140 GWHDDs..the normal is ~115. This is an extreme solution and is for entertainment purposes at this point. BUT the storm date is there. #natgas #energy $ng $natgas

 

 

 

Dq2juYcX0AMYVSP.jpg

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7 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

The GFS OP for the cold shot is flat out cold 

 

Crazy cold change on the morning GFS. The new week 2 forecast from the op run is incredibly cold with nearly 140 GWHDDs..the normal is ~115. This is an extreme solution and is for entertainment purposes at this point. BUT the storm date is there. #natgas #energy $ng $natgas

 

 

 

Dq2juYcX0AMYVSP.jpg

It will probably be a good shot of cold, just not going to be sustained for the rest of the month. 

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EPS supports big time cold shot 

A2A02817-C1E8-4AD7-BD04-51035EF2D3C5.png

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28 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

Wow. Don't look now, but this more widespread wintry threat mid-November might be legit.

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That should correct further. 

eps_z500a_nh_61-1.png

eps_z500a_nh_53.png

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That’s quite possibly our first track of the young season right there. Bring it!

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On ‎10‎/‎27‎/‎2018 at 10:17 AM, dmillz25 said:

Getting closer and closer to winter guys!

less then 20 weeks until spring :)

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3 hours ago, PB GFI said:

That should correct further. 

eps_z500a_nh_61-1.png

eps_z500a_nh_53.png

While the NAO has trended slightly lower here, it appears the Scandinavian ridging signal has been diluted significantly. If I'm recalling this correctly, this could mean a more +ve NAO later on than in the first image, but this is 300+ hrs out so it's difficult to make any absolute statements right now

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This winter is going to be a fun one. The pattern is evolving in almost a textbook way for a snowy NE winter honestly. Maybe even our first track in mid November!

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