November 2018 Discussion & Observations - Winter Countdown - Page 27 - Weather Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
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November 2018 Discussion & Observations - Winter Countdown

33andrain

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not much support on the mean for the end of next week. @Superstorm93 can tell us if their is anything on the idv members 

 

some, but with euro still making the SW early, i wouldn’t expect much deviation from op, if this were to change by chance, likely won’t see EPS on board till OP is 

DF67C9EB-B2D2-4492-B443-522D59B8076D.png

1BC9D0F5-171A-4123-88A5-2E44C356D1EA.png

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8 minutes ago, rb924119 said:

In my opinion, the potential (wintry) storm threat progged to impact our region early next week will come down to a battle between latent heat release versus the anomalous snowpack/positive feedback trend occurring in Canada in recent weeks, as has been discussed ad nauseum by @Anastasia Beaverhausen. My reason comes from the fact that there is a complete Northern Hemispheric incongruency amongst major features that are all negatively interfering with each other. For example, whilenwe will have a -NAO to work with, we are lacking the presence of a true 50/50 low, which is a combination I like to see. Similarly, while we have a great -EPO signal, we are lacking a -AO. Third, our +PNA ridge spike (a dime-piece look of one, I might add) is likely to be offset by the presence of a sustained SOI spike in recent days passed. In addition to all of that, the signal of a -WPO will be countered by a Niño 1.2 spike in the final ten days of October. With the MJO likely to be a non-factor here (this is all in my opinion/analysis, of course), we have to look at things closer to home to try find any further clues.

 

In this case, the two factors come down to the two mentioned at the top, and while I fully agree with the sentiments regarding the Canadian feedbacks having a substantial impact on our sensible weather, especially down the road, I feel that it will be out-dueled by the latent heat release (this time). Why? Well, when you have such amplification with such large departures from normal in regions of their progression (i.e. a trough of this magnitude at this latitude) the results they produce are likely to follow suit. In regard to the trough in question, it will have quite a southerly fetch out ahead of it, and with such warmth in the Gulf and western Atlantic, I think that there will be a whole lot of precipitation and even thunderstorms  across the Southeast. As a result, I feel the latent heat release in conjunction with sharp wavelengths of the amplified pattern will be enough to adequately raise heights ahead of our developing system, such that the steering flow will be corrected from the SSW instead of the SW. As such, while it will be a very near “miss” thermodynamically speaking, I expect the lower-level feature to pass either directly over our region, (just east of the Appalachian spine) or too close to our region to substantially override the warm advection aloft. I think we see one of those stereotypical cold, raw, nasty November rains. Quite possibly 33andrain for many lol just my opinion, and I can certainly see the other side of the argument, where it’s a very near “hit” thermodynamically, but favor the former as of now.

Gulf is definitely in good shape.  Depending on track, wonder if there's thundersnow?

181108.312.1358.n18.jpg

 

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13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

More rain coming 

B03280CA-7C44-472F-A2C9-90EC535CC0B1.png

“We’re gonna need a bigger boat.......” lmao

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Temps won’t get out of the low 40’s on Saturday 

 

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1 hour ago, SnowSquallJoe said:

Gulf is definitely in good shape.  Depending on track, wonder if there's thundersnow?

Would request you to help me out here. What's this about?

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12 minutes ago, Anastasia Beaverhausen said:

Corrected 18z GFS

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20 (1).png

could explain, some posters are likely unsure of what corrections your eluding to

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as is usually the case when it comes to storm “track” and “shifts”... ptype maps won’t really paint the picture imo... as you can see the previous runs simply dig our NS energy a bit further South, slight interaction with the SSW, cause a shift in the elongated vort... this run it kicks it a tad east with the with a more rounded ULL dive and stronger backside 

42DE8711-3F1C-440C-B2FB-060E9E03F53A.gif

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10 minutes ago, NSFW Weather Guy said:

as is usually the case when it comes to storm “track” and “shifts”... ptype maps won’t really paint the picture imo... as you can see the previous runs simply dig our NS energy a bit further South, slight interaction with the SSW, cause a shift in the elongated vort... this run it kicks it a tad east with the with a more rounded ULL dive and stronger backside 

42DE8711-3F1C-440C-B2FB-060E9E03F53A.gif

Do you think we see a continued correction toward a colder solution? As of right now BGM maybe even MSV might be the place to be for this event. Hopefully I’m wrong

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

Do you think we see a continued correction toward a colder solution? As of right now BGM maybe even MSV might be the place to be for this event. Hopefully I’m wrong

Climatologically speaking - those two locales would be ideal for this set up. I’m an hour or so NNW from BGM and think they thump harder on the front end and areas up here make up for it with Lake Effect. 

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11 minutes ago, MesoBanding said:

Bring a sleeping bag up Tony. 

I'm going to Cooperstown in 2 weeks

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1 hour ago, Anastasia Beaverhausen said:

Corrected 18z GFS

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20 (1).png

Beware of the GFS progressive bias too.

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