November 2018 Discussion & Observations - Winter Countdown - Page 3 - Weather Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
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November 2018 Discussion & Observations - Winter Countdown

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57 minutes ago, NotSparta said:

While the NAO has trended slightly lower here, it appears the Scandinavian ridging signal has been diluted significantly. If I'm recalling this correctly, this could mean a more +ve NAO later on than in the first image, but this is 300+ hrs out so it's difficult to make any absolute statements right now

 

As far as the Scandinavian ridge goes , I think a few members took off towards Greenland.

Which I don't mind seeing. 

 

That would force the trough to split that ringing in the east and squeeze the neg east of the Miss.

 

At least for now , I agree nothing is definitive,  just a hunch of a correction.

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Late tonight thru the first half of Saturday continues to look pretty wet on the NAM/GFS.

 

98ewbg.gif

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Some beautiful foliage this morning on the trees, as we start our decent to one of the best seasons ever! 

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Don’t forget to set those clocks back Saturday night! Hooray for earlier model runs! 

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Current temp is 67 here.

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Will root for the N and W 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

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22 hours ago, PB GFI said:

That should correct further. 

eps_z500a_nh_61-1.png

eps_z500a_nh_53.png

 

 

The GEFS corrected , but I will wait for the EPS to see if it agrees. 

gefs_z500a_nh_49   NOV 1 2018 - SPLIT THE RIDGE.png

 

 

The GEFS is a little later than the EPS (10th )  with the cold ( GEFS 12th )  but it is a mainstay thru day 16 , whereas the 0Z EPS let up by day 14 

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Question about GOA low pressure systems and how that affects the EC. I read somewhere (either on here or Twitter) that if there is a system in the Gulf of Alaska, that doesn't support east coast storms. I'm not entirely sure if this is true but if someone could help me out that would be appreciated. Thanks! 

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Basically, the reason is that those systems promote Pacific flow into the US, therefore leading to a zonal, stagnant flow over the EC. 

 

988231922_00zgfs240500mb11118.png.bf181e6cf891088828a952ed6a5b0670.png

 

For example, the troughing in the GoA and off the WC leads to an inundation of Pacific air. To see where air is flowing, follow the height lines. Since air at this level is pretty much geostrophic, it will follow lines of constant height. With this technique, you can see how air moves in off the water instead of over the poles. In this case, even if there was a favorable storm track for the EC, it would most likely be marginal at best. 

 

I think he was alluding to out near the Aleutians ? 

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Barney anomalies looks good to me here.

 

 

eps_t850a_c_noram_45  NOV 1 2018 CONTROL 1.png

eps_t850a_c_noram_49 NOV 1 2018 CONTROL 2.png

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Eps continues with the neg NAO for the middle of the month 

74058055-DD1E-422F-907A-B5EAC9C7BA65.png

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Starts around the 8th which will help bring us a solid cold shot 

FE29905A-6F88-478E-B9AE-CF46F9C123F1.png

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