November 2018 Discussion & Observations - Winter Countdown - Page 4 - Weather Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
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November 2018 Discussion & Observations - Winter Countdown

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1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

Barney anomalies looks good to me here.

 

 

eps_t850a_c_noram_45  NOV 1 2018 CONTROL 1.png

eps_t850a_c_noram_49 NOV 1 2018 CONTROL 2.png

Jesus h Christmas that is teens temperatures.

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Heavy rain threat continues for tomorrow into the first half of Saturday.

 

98ewbg.gif

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73 today, took off and played a terrible round of golf, but didnt care one bit.  

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Meh...tomorrow through Saturday has high bust potential IMO. On the low side NYC and south. I don't think NYC south much rain tomorrow at all. It's the secondary line that comes through early Saturday that dumps most of the rain. Meh.

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Can't believe this wasn't posted. FV3 snow storm for the Southern MA. I mean...wowsers. I continue to like this time frame to be tracking our first widespread snow chances.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

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20 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Can't believe this wasn't posted. FV3 snow storm for the Southern MA. I mean...wowsers. I continue to like this time frame to be tracking our first widespread snow chances.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

Not that it can’t happen, but that’s obviously way too far south climo wise. Likely would be rain if the storm tracked down there. Now if it turns northward up the coast, we could have an early season snowstorm in the NYC metro area and north.

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Current temp is a balmy 69 here.

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14 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Eps continues with the neg NAO for the middle of the month 

74058055-DD1E-422F-907A-B5EAC9C7BA65.png

The problem though is that the wavtrain continues amplifying in the wrong places. For example, one of the best precursors to a cold outbreak across the eastern CONUS is a steadfast ridge around 70N/70E. I have yet to see this feature on any guidance. Instead, we are seeing ridging continuously go up around 30-40E, which sets the wavetrain up in the wrong orientation for us. This is why we are seeing the Pacific pattern remain transient and the Southeast Ridge continuing to fight back; this out of sync wavetrain fighting the other favorable factors. Until I see that ridging start showing up, expect a lot of back and forth, in my opinion.

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25 minutes ago, rb924119 said:

The problem though is that the wavtrain continues amplifying in the wrong places. For example, one of the best precursors to a cold outbreak across the eastern CONUS is a steadfast ridge around 70N/70E. I have yet to see this feature on any guidance. Instead, we are seeing ridging continuously go up around 30-40E, which sets the wavetrain up in the wrong orientation for us. This is why we are seeing the Pacific pattern remain transient and the Southeast Ridge continuing to fight back; this out of sync wavetrain fighting the other favorable factors. Until I see that ridging start showing up, expect a lot of back and forth, in my opinion.

You’re 100% correct on this. I think we will get a decent cold shot next week, but will not last long. Perhaps we see a sustained trough in the east at the end of the month 

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Growing confidence for a legit cold shot at the end of next week into the weekend. 

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Just now, PB GFI said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

Oh hi gfs lol 

F935418C-72BC-4700-AD30-920254D11DD9.png

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