November 2018 Discussion & Observations - Winter Countdown - Page 87 - Weather Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
dmillz25

November 2018 Discussion & Observations - Winter Countdown

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1 hour ago, Dsnowx53 said:

 

 

This also very much matches the @Allsnow storm he's been hinting at with the long range EPS. With the poleward Pacific blocking and another transient ridge in the Western US within the split flow pattern, you can get a dynamic polar shortwave to dive down into the US into the split flow and STJ pattern, with a much colder airmass. That's definitely a KU signal probably sometime around December 9-10, since that's 5 days after the T-5 days/EPS day 15 matching composite.

Thanks @Dsnowx53! I’m just piggybacking off some of the great thoughts on this forum. Really nice to have you and @earthlight in here tonight! Me personally, have never been this excited for a upcoming winter.

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29 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

FWIW, the 12z Navy ensembles is probably one of the prettiest runs of that ensemble run I have ever seen.

 

nvg.raw-ensm-geop_ht_500mb.324.n_amer_nps.gif

Does that orange/yellow coloration represent a negative tilted trough ?   I’m still new to reading this h5 maps 

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7 minutes ago, Chrisbo007 said:

Does that orange/yellow coloration represent a negative tilted trough ?   I’m still new to reading this h5 maps 

No. What you’re looking at here are the ensemble mean (multiple individually perturbed GFS models (essentially) averaged together) H5 heights denoted by the lines, and the uncertainty of those averaged heights in the color shading. Basically, the deeper the shading the color bar, the higher the variance amongst the ensemble (large spread of possible solutions for that particular area from one ensemble member to the next). Very helpful in determining which features are more “locked in” versus those are highly uncertain amongst the ensemble members. Make sense?

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I  am going to need my sleep. 

Gona be busy leading up to the 3rd and then again on the 10th.

 

Timmy , I like your 10th idea, so does JB fwiw.

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

With this right behind it...

fv3p_z500_vort_namer_64.png

I can’t wait for it to show a absolute crusher.  Huge overrunning to stalled miller a blizzard.

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Just now, Adam said:

I can’t wait for it to show a absolute crusher.  Huge overrunning to stalled miller a blizzard.

@Chris L?

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Just now, 33andrain said:

Explosive. 

 

Back to Back and a Belly to Belly !!!

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4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Back to Back and a Belly to Belly !!!

So I would guess Dec 10 would be a tombstone piledriver 😂

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