Severe Weather Outbreak November 5th-6th - Archived Weather Discussion - 33andrain Jump to content
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Storm Sliders

Severe Weather Outbreak November 5th-6th

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A very significant severe outbreak will be under way soon. Tomorrow and Tuesday will need very close observation.

day2otlk_0600.gif?1541340756755day3otlk_0830.gif?1541340767972

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10 minutes ago, Storm Sliders said:

A very significant severe outbreak will be under way soon. Tomorrow and Tuesday will need very close observation.

day2otlk_0600.gif?1541340756755day3otlk_0830.gif?1541340767972

An upgrade to Slight Risk is very possible for our area on Tuesday.

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4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

An upgrade to Slight Risk is very possible for our area on Tuesday.

I'm with you there. I think there could be tornado watches up to central jersey. 

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This setup reminds me of the February 23/24 2016 severe outbreak. Storms were wreaking havoc that night. Tornadoes were all over the place.

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Recent events have me worried about setups like these. The nam has been fairly consistent with the tor hazard. I know it tends to over-amplify things. It usually produces an excessively high cape value, but I don't believe that is the case this time. Last time I checked, most of the models had very high helicity. All we need is cape values over 100 and we should be in business. And that bulk shear takes no prisoners. When we have strong bulk shear like this the storms usually have no choice but to form. nam_2018110412_060_39.93--75.45.png

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mcd1622.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1622
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0505 PM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

   Areas affected...northern LA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 422...

   Valid 052305Z - 060000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 422 continues.

   SUMMARY...A favorable environment and supercellular storm type will
   support a continued tornado risk with experimental guidance
   suggesting damage intensities 80-135 mph (upper EF0-EF2).

   DISCUSSION...KPOE and KSHV radar imagery show a cluster of
   supercells in a southwest-northeast broken band and a few discrete
   supercells located over north-central LA.  The storms are located in
   a very moist boundary layer with surface dewpoints around 70 degrees
   F and lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios 15-16 g/kg.  The KPOE VAD
   shows strong speed shear in the lowest 1km (30 kt) with a veering
   wind profile through the mid levels.  Given the favorable mesoscale
   environment and supercellular storm type, the tornado risk will
   continue downstream to the east-northeast across north-central LA
   during the next hour.  Experimental probability guidance is
   suggestive of damage intensities primarily within a 80-135 mph range
   (upper EF0-EF2) with any ongoing or subsequently developing tornado.

   ..Smith.. 11/05/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

 

 

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What's scary about this is the tornadoes right now are in a marginal/slight risk area. 

Screen Shot 2018-11-05 at 6.14.32 PM.png

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Very, very impressive hodograph. Insane amounts of storm relative helicity 

 

 

upperair.ULM_sonde.201811060000.Monroe_LA_skewT.png

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Sounding from Fenwick Island, DE. Could have a few tornadoes in the Delmarva this afternoon.  

Screen Shot 2018-11-06 at 6.37.00 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-11-06 at 6.37.16 AM.png

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