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Griteater's Winter Outlook (18-19)

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I would take your forecast and run with it

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59 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Great, well-researched winter outlook as per usual, @griteater! Good luck with verification. I agree with some of your reasoning/conclusions and disagree with others; you'll see where those differences lie soon.

 

Any thoughts regarding precipitation and snowfall departures? My only minor nit-pick is I prefer using the 1950-2010 as a base comparison period; I think the 1980-2010 base tends to overestimate cool anomalies somewhat. But very good job on your outlook last winter.

 

352112AB-2046-4EE1-84D9-CDCA0E02396A.gif

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On 11/8/2018 at 11:15 PM, Ray8002 said:

 

352112AB-2046-4EE1-84D9-CDCA0E02396A.gif

:roll: Perfect. 

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9 minutes ago, SnowSquallJoe said:

This is awesome griteater!  Can I send this to my brother?  He lives in Charlotte.  

 

Of course, thank you!

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45 minutes ago, griteater said:

 

Thanks for the compliments Iso (and thanks to all others as well!), appreciate it.  I realized this morning that I forgot to post the snowfall map in the outlook, lol.  So here it is.  I find precip maps to be extremely difficult to predict.  Sure, you can get an idea from the projected pattern, but then you have to account for convective (down south) vs. cold sector precip etc...so, it gets quite complicated IMO.  I'm staying away from that for now.  On the climo base, I just state that I'm predicting against the 81-10 base and go with it that way (i.e. stating that up front).  Thanks again.

 

pDOPzem.gif

 

Great work Gritty and I hope for the best with your snowfall map!! Ray is on the cusp here of above average as you skirt the NJ S southern coast!! 

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On 11/8/2018 at 11:15 PM, Ray8002 said:

 

352112AB-2046-4EE1-84D9-CDCA0E02396A.gif

 

like everybody else, i read Isotherm's post 6 times (okay, 9 times).... with a magnifying glass.  i thought it sounded pretty positive. 

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27 minutes ago, green tube said:

 

like everybody else, i read Isotherm's post 6 times (okay, 9 times).... with a magnifying glass.  i thought it sounded pretty positive. 

I agree.

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