November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs - Page 125 - Thread Archive - 33andrain Jump to content
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November 15-16th -- First Widespread Frozen -- Forecasts/Obs

33andrain

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3 minutes ago, CCB! said:

Yeah, I really don't think you're done up there!

 

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I agree. All guidance is showing some sort of CCB up here. Its a matter of how much falls

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0z 3km Nam 500 mb vort- Watch the kicker out in the Upper Midwest exert pressure on the ULL. It will weaken it and  open it up so it goes just a little more NE.  Personally, I am hoping for less interaction so the ULL can travel more E than NE ( I am 50 miles NW of Philly). But, you guys should do well with this in the morning hours.

00Z-20181116_NAMUS_500_avort-0-15-200-200.gif

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1 hour ago, AG3 said:

 

FV3 was perfect as well.

FV3 wasn’t the best short range but few days ago had snow along 95...

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My commute home took 7 hours. 6 hours until the GWB. If de Blasio had any decency, he would resign overnight. 

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Snowmaps aside, I'm in general agreement with Craig here... The mid-level clues were ever present on the NAM's for days (albeit, their thermal profiles were too warm), well ahead of the pack. The HRRR did well as it came into range as well, confirming the best omega signals. The RGEM didn't do too bad & the FV3-GFS thermal profiles were very respectable as well. The EPS mean percentage products performed well too.

 

And with no dispute, this storm will sure as shit go down as one of the worst commuting days in the tri-state area's history. Holy hell.... Onto the next! :):) 

 

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euro spits out 1-2” per hour rates for the big finish...same as nam/RGEM... tomorrow’s commute with certainly catch people off guard again.. i can’t imagine the backlash, if local mets don’t put out a statement up here regarding the CCB, 

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I have a friend who left work at 5pm last night and JUST got home an hour ago. She lives in the Bronx and works in Brooklyn 

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1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

So what did the Park finish with?

6.4” just found it

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My final snow/sleet total is about 5.0" here. Not a bad way to start the season off.

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We are underway with the backside of this storm.  Moderate snow 1/2 mile visibility 33*

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