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Bastardi's Basin -- JMA Comment from Latest DJF run

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Great post JB and grateful you take the time to share your thoughts with us from time to time. Here's to a snowy Winter 18-19!

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I am not so sure about this, one thing is for sure is the models are really struggling. Since May, all of the models continue to try to place the CHI 200 away from the Maritime Continent and into the Atlantic, and only for one period in September did it actually become real, and Australia had a very dry month.

 

The JMA had many weeks where it also took the CHI 200 East into the Americas only to fail, and it would end up right back where we started. So this year I have been focusing more on actual water temps rather than anomalies. It is hard to see how the upward motion would consolidate over an area that 25 degrees, whilst the West pacific, and the Maritime Continent have waters between 29 and 31 degrees Celsius. My theory is the climate models all have an El Nino forecast, and its playing havoc with the short term versions of their models.

 

And I think the clue is the SOI, attached, it has not been able to take hold, even in weak El Nino years we have seen a run of 4 - 6 months with the SOI in the minus territory. This year has been bang on neutral, up and down like the proverbial.

 

Also attached is the 200 VV maps from the SH winter of 1997, showing the set up for El Nino takes hold a long time before the event. At no stage this year have we seen anything like this. And I think JB is right, its water vapour that is playing havoc with this, it appears to be not allowing the atmosphere to do what it normally would do, its having a big impact on the weather at present. All interesting stuff, and like everyone I will wait and see if this JMA forecast comes off, because at the moment I doubt it will.

Screen Shot 2018-11-16 at 9.46.37 am.png

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