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Snowy Hibbo

Hibbo's 2018-19 Winter Outlook

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9 hours ago, Bring Back 1962-63 said:
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So, overall I am most certainly not disagreeing with your (and Tom's) LRFs - I just wanted to highlight some of the factors to look out for going forward (there are others too) which makes this a particularly difficult one to call right now.  We all need to embrace some of the global changes such as the Arctic/mid-latitude/troposphere contrasts and some unusual SST anomalies and these + what I refer to above does make the use of analogue years a much less reliable tool or guide. It's a fascinating setup and one which we can learn from as we move into winter proper. David :) 

Thanks David :)

 

1. Agree with your note on the flavours of El Nino. I made it sure that I said CP Nino, rather than Modoki with it's cool anomalies in Nino 1+2.

2. Perhaps it might, but I still believe the tropospheric setup should still push highs into the B-K Sea area/Scandinavian Region, because of the base state over there.

3. I don't think we'll see a SSW in December by definition, but we will see a strong weakening with tropospheric implications (depending on where and the coupling of the Strat and Troposphere).

6 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Great work, @Snowy Hibbo Zac. 

 

We have plenty of commonalities b/t our outlooks. It seems you're also anticipating a largely decoupled upper strat / trop with lower than normal probability of a technical SSW. However, the troposphere will remain perturbed. This mirrors my thinking, too. 

 

Also interesting to see you've included Western US discussion more than I've read in any other outlook. Those plagued by the CA fires are hoping your outcomes comes to fruition. I concur with your thoughts on the STJ strength. 

Thanks Tom :)

Yes I reckon there won't be a technical SSW this year, but the best chance would be in Feb. It will remain relatively weak in terms of the SPV though, with above average numbers of minor SPV warmings, as indicated by modelling, and drivers. Which itself isn't very workable in terms of coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere, particularly the upper stratosphere.

 

Yeah the outlook is originally a ski one, so it goes out to people I know out in Western CONUS. I hope California gets its well deserved rainfall/snowfall as well. 

 

And thank you to everyone else for your comments. They mean a lot :)

 

 

 

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