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Rant N' Rave (Banter) Thread

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 Still 5 days away. It Was not gonna be 5 days of awesome model runs. 

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BMC- Most operAtional and ensemble products had a conducive pattern well established by this point.  January 20 is 2/3 of January gone now also.  I don’t want to see the modeled great pattern anymore, we all want to actually see it finally transpire!   We all are here for the same thing, we all want snow! 

 

Perfectly stated!!

 

In bold as did MANY of our posters adn pros here stated and then the what are we complaining about. 

Kicking the can forward every time and saying why are you guys biaging - because it was stated many times of the pattern changes time frame 1/15 then onto ~1/20 it will be entrenched and now it ~1/25 ish. Now it is this one may not work out but  the next one and Oh the MJO is going into phase 4 now 5 so it may dampen the cold and storm track - MOMMA MIA. And then the well that is the weather - it is very frustrating for many, this winter has purely been modeled  terribly so far, the MJO, jet retractions, High Lattitude Blocking etc. just my .02. All I can say is Europe is rocking and we are skunked. Similarities to 11-12 so far with all and that winter was just god awful/ of my recollection

/rant

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27 minutes ago, earthlight said:

 

Brian,

 

I am lost as to how to respond to you because it appears that your analysis continues to be largely anecdotal and without any meteorological basis or fact. I am still awaiting your post where you technically break down and defend your opinion that the pattern has yet to change and is not conducive for winter weather in the Northeast.  Until then, I will continue operating under my understanding - a very strongly opinionated understanding - that your opinions are being formed by the lack of substantial winter weather in your very own backyard. In the above post, you specifically mention a few things several times that tip me off to how your opinion is forming. Since you continue to post this stuff, let me break it down in detail for our other members:

 

----------------------------------------

 

"The pattern hasn't come to fruition yet" 

 

This is materially incorrect, unless you are discussing your backyard. The hemispheric waveguide has fundamentally changed after a very warm and extremely unfavorable December. High latitude blocking has developed in the EPO regions and the wave train throughout the Pacific Ocean has significantly altered. The southward movement of Arctic air via the development of a -NAM and favorable IO convection has led already to one major winter storm threat.

 

This past weekend, Washington DC received over 10 inches of snow in a very favorable winter weather setup guided by this exact pattern change. To say that the pattern has not changed is materially incorrect and that opinion should simply be discounted from discussion altogether. 

 

"The reason for that being a destructive pacific, less epo blocking, and no North Atlantic help"

 

This, to me, suggests a total lack of detailed analysis, a biased opinion and/or recency bias bleeding in to your thoughts, and once again a bias toward your own backyard. There is a large -EPO ridge developing and a cutoff ridge is forecast to push north of Alaska over the next few days. The progression of the +AAM and a refraction toward the Pacific, plus the evolution of the +EAMT suggests continued retraction of the Pacific jet and all reliable ensembles suggest the development of a split flow with a major -EPO ridge continuing and building through Day 7. This is not a long range fantasy, it is already occurring now. 

 

The pattern in the North Atlantic has featured multiple surges of ridging into Greenland. I am not sure where you are getting information suggesting we should be seeing massive -NAO blocks, but I don't know anyone who called for that before February. It has been well discussed that the pattern would gradually become more favorable for -NAO blocking as we went along and the Pacific -EPO/-AO is the first chip to fall. 

 

"The January 20th system in my opinion, is going to have a very tough time working out for NYC."

 

Again, this screams a local bias and that is bleeding deeply into your opinions and your posts. Guess what, dude? Even if the January 20th system doesn't work out for NYC, the pattern still changed. Even if your specific backyard sees zero inches of snow for the rest of the winter, the pattern still changed. You need to stop thinking about yourself and look at the waveguide throughout the hemisphere. It's not all about what happens here. 

 

------------------------------

 

To conclude my thoughts, I continue to believe that your posts are riddled with anecdotal analysis, a bias toward your own backyard, and a lack of meteorological fact. To say that the pattern has not changed is simply wrong, and to look at the medium and long range ensemble guidance and not be excited is absolutely mind blowing to me. We are entering a potentially historic period of winter weather and you are spending your time arguing why the pattern hasn't changed because your backyard hasn't seen snow yet.

 

I suggest you check yourself and your true motivation for posting on here if you are going to waste your time doing this. For the rest of us, we're about to enter a very exciting time and there is no reason to be concerned. The pattern will gradually build toward one that is extremely favorable for winter storms and cold weather in the Northeast, yes Brian including NYC and your backyard, from late January and continuing well into February. 

 

Carry on.

 

People want a pattern that supports snow like what has been promised many times.

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33 minutes ago, amugs said:

BMC- Most operAtional and ensemble products had a conducive pattern well established by this point.  January 20 is 2/3 of January gone now also.  I don’t want to see the modeled great pattern anymore, we all want to actually see it finally transpire!   We all are here for the same thing, we all want snow! 

 

Perfectly stated!!

 

In bold as did MANY of our posters adn pros here stated and then the what are we complaining about. 

Kicking the can forward every time and saying why are you guys biaging - because it was stated many times of the pattern changes time frame 1/15 then onto ~1/20 it will be entrenched and now it ~1/25 ish. Now it is this one may not work out but  the next one and Oh the MJO is going into phase 4 now 5 so it may dampen the cold and storm track - MOMMA MIA. And then the well that is the weather - it is very frustrating for many, this winter has purely been modeled  terribly so far, the MJO, jet retractions, High Lattitude Blocking etc. just my .02. All I can say is Europe is rocking and we are skunked. Similarities to 11-12 so far with all and that winter was just god awful/ of my recollection

/rant

Pretty much spot on and agree with it all 

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I don't think many of you realize how close we came to getting a big snow storm just yesterday. The pattern already is conducive for snow. Certainly more so than on New Years Day. The IMBY-based whining accomplishes nothing. We get it. You wish you had snow. And you're frustrated we've wasted so much of the Winter already. You just choose to more dramatic about it online. Get on the train for the second half. It's obviously coming.

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How do you guys think Northeast PA near Scranton will make out with this one.  Quite the range of possibilities up here.  

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49 minutes ago, Psv said:

I think people are frustrated because they often take the word of the more established posters as gospel. However, their forecasts are only as good as the modeling. Nobody foresaw the MJO crawling through 5 and 6, so as they say, garbage in, garbage out. 

 

Looking objectively, some posters rushed the pattern and were stating that we would see storm threats in late December, and rock thereafter. Others, such as @earthlight, clearly were not as bullish on the change, and noted January 15 and on. Everyone knows i never blow smoke, but i suggest that the newer posters take a step back, see which posters have verified the best, and in the future, place their expectations accordingly. 

 

I also used to get distraught when the can got kicked down the road. But it is what it is, you cannot control it. While its not snowing, live your lives, see your family, get some work done, and rest. It's just snow. 

 

Winters here are volatile to begin with, especially in NJ/NY/PA.

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57 minutes ago, Psv said:

I think people are frustrated because they often take the word of the more established posters as gospel. However, their forecasts are only as good as the modeling. Nobody foresaw the MJO crawling through 5 and 6, so as they say, garbage in, garbage out. 

 

Looking objectively, some posters rushed the pattern and were stating that we would see storm threats in late December, and rock thereafter. Others, such as @earthlight, clearly were not as bullish on the change, and noted January 15 and on. Everyone knows i never blow smoke, but i suggest that the newer posters take a step back, see which posters have verified the best, and in the future, place their expectations accordingly. 

 

I also used to get distraught when the can got kicked down the road. But it is what it is, you cannot control it. While its not snowing, live your lives, see your family, get some work done, and rest. It's just snow. 

Absolutely agree with this, Earthlight has been Jan 15th since back to October with initial thoughts. However, its just getting frustrating now that we are being told we are punting jan 20 and possibly the 24th. At some point I think we just possibly need to admit there isn't enough time to save the winter that was originally thought. Or I am just an idiot and we see a 30 plus inch February. I think if an average winter was foretasted people would be more patient but with what we thought was coming, it would take a run and a half to meet expectations. I never recall so much frustration on a weather board and I think the expectations have to be the main reason. Its like being the Jacksonville jags, you expected super bowl and got 4-12. Tough to swallow, even if we get a victory or two down the stretch, still no playoffs! lol

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17 minutes ago, Heavy snow said:

Absolutely agree with this, Earthlight has been Jan 15th since back to October with initial thoughts. However, its just getting frustrating now that we are being told we are punting jan 20 and possibly the 24th. At some point I think we just possibly need to admit there isn't enough time to save the winter that was originally thought. Or I am just an idiot and we see a 30 plus inch February. I think if an average winter was foretasted people would be more patient but with what we thought was coming, it would take a run and a half to meet expectations. I never recall so much frustration on a weather board and I think the expectations have to be the main reason. Its like being the Jacksonville jags, you expected super bowl and got 4-12. Tough to swallow, even if we get a victory or two down the stretch, still no playoffs! lol

 

You must be new to the boards. This is nothing.

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Just now, Psv said:

 

You must be new to the boards. This is nothing.

lol, no, I have been on american weather forum since 2000. These meltdowns just seem a little more edgy this year.

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At this point we would need a great March to meet up the snow expectations. Could it happen sure!! Trying to stay positive is the key. 

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It’s the same repeating pattern, year after year. People are discussing rain snow lines already (not saying here persay).

At this lead time we should be focusing on the big picture.

We have days and days to go to focus on the details. 

The signal is there...

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I understand we are too far out to look at rain/snow line currently. Generally speaking, when can they begin to get nailed down? 96-72 hours out, 36-24 hours out etc...

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2 minutes ago, Heavy snow said:

lol, no, I have been on american weather forum since 2000. These meltdowns just seem a little more edgy this year.

I think some of it could be because in November we had a snowstorm and thanksgiving had record cold. I think many thought a huge, long cold winter was coming. Also many forecasts from long range experts went balls to the wall snowy and cold. Then December we saw DT get buried with a foot a snow and since then nothing but pretty maps showing potential snow and everyone telling us things will change. I get that things are not like December was and I was lucky enough to get a couple of inches yesterday while DC got a foot. Then models looked good for next weekend and now that looks meh. Now we hear January 24th on will rock. That’s 10 days away. The can is beaten to death 

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it could be the 28th before we get a snowfall...or later...I find it hard to believe we get shut out the rest of the way...I've been wrong before and this year adds to it...

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4 minutes ago, uncle w said:

it could be the 28th before we get a snowfall...or later...I find it hard to believe we get shut out the rest of the way...I've been wrong before and this year adds to it...

Unc you have any data for nyc with no accumulating snow for December/January that resulted in big February/March?

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I know it’s the GEFS but I for one am not throwing this weekend 5–6 days out when 5-8”  means are being outputted and trending snowier (and the UKMET trends better as well)

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32 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

Unc you have any data for nyc with no accumulating snow for December/January that resulted in big February/March?

winter...snow 12/1- 1/31...snowfall 2/1 and after...

1875-76...……..2.0"...…..........….16.3".....11" storm early Feb...

1899-00...……..1.1"....................12.3"

1900-01...........2.1"......................7.0"

1905-06...........2.5"....................17.5"

1913-14...........1.6"....................38.9".....10" storm in Feb...14" storm March 1st...

1918-19...........0.6"......................3.2"

1931-32...........0.9"......................2.4"

1949-50...........1.5"....................11.8"

1971-72...........2.8"....................20.1"

1972-73...........1.8"......................1.0"

1974-75...........2.1"....................10.9"

1991-92...........2.2"....................10.4"

1992-93...........1.9"....................22.6".....10" storm in March...

1994-95...........0.2"....................11.6".....10" storm in early Feb...

1997-98...........0.5"......................5.0"

2006-07...........2.6"......................9.8"

2012-13...........1.9"....................19.5".....10" storm in Feb...5" in Nov...

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