Wx Rant N' Rave (Banter) Thread - Page 137 - Forecasting and Discussion - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
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Wx Rant N' Rave (Banter) Thread

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23 hours ago, Ace said:

An observation: The winter discussion thread started off good, but has a ton of posts that probably should be in the "Autumn Observations and Discussion" thread. Posting maps for day 10 to 15 on there by itself without anything else doesn't really advance the discussion on there. Obviously the "Teleconnections" thread has most of the advanced discussion , but i think we can all do a better job 🤷‍♂️

Yes, I read ya & agree. We'll try to maintain that message. I moved a few medium range posts to the proper thread today.

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2 hours ago, CCB! said:

Yes, I read ya & agree. We'll try to maintain that message. I moved a few medium range posts to the proper thread today.

 

👍

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Another potential early season snowstorm? Winter is over, see you in March. :facepalm:😜😛

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8 hours ago, NotSparta said:

Kind of random question - were the winter storm floaters from last winter a good idea? Thinking about doing that again

Won't ever turn them down, mate! 

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Remember when the 348-360 hour GFS (almost) nailed this upcoming setup?

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_58.png.4defd569b5cd8dfc97be57c81cb4045b.png

9C835EB4-F9DC-4970-A2A9-FC91C2496FEA.png.db86779195fc3ef763e03a7c25ed819b.png

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Its like clockwork every winter on here, some of these "mets" are basing maps on their emotions......they look at 300 hour maps and get excited, then they refresh hours later only to look at those maps at 250 hours out and weep, bitterly, when the storm goes off track or disappear altogteher.

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On 10/31/2019 at 4:19 PM, Snowman11 said:

Happy Halloween weenies 

20191031_160523.jpg

20191031_160233.jpg

 

Orlando had the hottest Halloween on record with a high of 91 with dewpoints in the 70's. Yuck!!!

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At least we are practicing for all of the disappointments we will have this winter when the models show a big storm only to weaken to fropa as we move closer. 😛😜

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@Isotherm outlook is like a dark cloud hanging over me. Now I’m very skeptical about all of the “cold/snowy” forecasts moving forward. We’ll see how things play out this year. Good way to look at it is, unlike last year, we were warned beforehand that this winter will suck lol. Last year was brutal with the consistent hoping and waiting for the pattern to reverse to a snowy one. 

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3 hours ago, MJOP8 said:

@Isotherm outlook is like a dark cloud hanging over me. Now I’m very skeptical about all of the “cold/snowy” forecasts moving forward. We’ll see how things play out this year. Good way to look at it is, unlike last year, we were warned beforehand that this winter will suck lol. Last year was brutal with the consistent hoping and waiting for the pattern to reverse to a snowy one. 

We should all be skeptical of cold/snowy forecasts now. Tom is one of the best in the field. His outlook clearly has stung us all. But while we do our share of hyping — no site is truly above it since cold/snow is what brings the traffic and engagement — we’re equally accepting of all points of view, even when they may only appeal to @SebagoWx. We continue to be extremely grateful to have Tom as an anchor of our community. :) 

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It seems that @Isotherm's outlook is the outlier from many others. Taking into account that most of the data looked at to create these outlooks are still beyond my comprehension. I assume this is due to how each individual interprets and weighs the data, more so than what each person uses. Similar to how if five chefs were given the same ingredients there could be three or four similar and one or two very different. Is my simplified take on how long range outlooks are created a decent analogy, or did Tom use "ingredients" most others did not?

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