[Eastern US] Dec. 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs - Page 225 - Thread Archive - 33andrain Jump to content
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[Eastern US] Dec. 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I will say this, I think with everything going on currently that we will be waiting until 1/15 for a better pattern. Just a ton to sort out currently 

 

 

Maybe. I doubt it, but we'll see. The picture will be much clearer in a couple of days.

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6 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

GEFS improved PNA amplitude in medium range, and are very close with the storm thread 3rd-4th. All that's really needed is a bit more PNA amplitude upstream. The tropical forcing location and jet extension would not argue for such a suppression in PNA amplitude as the operational GFS is indicating, but we'll see.

GEFS trap the Pv by Hudson Bay with the -nao

21F0139E-E374-4557-9C47-0C157D49144D.png

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

GEFS trap the Pv by Hudson Bay with the -nao

21F0139E-E374-4557-9C47-0C157D49144D.png

The cold should bleed south into our region with a look like that.  Correct?

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2 minutes ago, Oliviajames3 said:

The cold should bleed south into our region with a look like that.  Correct?

Flow from the NW. it would be cold here. 

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1 minute ago, earthlight said:

Nice look here, setting up a good looking pattern overall

 

gefs_good.png

Seems like our next storm threat falls here as well..agree?

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Just now, MatthewFerreirawx said:

Seems like our next storm threat falls here as well..agree?

 

Opinion hasn't changed over the past few weeks - not enamored any significant winter weather threat until 1/15 

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2 hours ago, Nchaboy said:

Isn’t the positive SOI not a good look for colder weather ? 

 

Some average temperature data for NYC during January El Niño cases:

 

SOI: -20 or below: 33.1°

SOI: -10 or below: 33.4°

SOI < 0: 33.9°

SOI > 0: 34.2°

 

Note: There is a small cluster of cases where the SOI was +10 or above with a mean temperature of 33.0°, but sample size issues may be involved.

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