[Eastern US] Dec. 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs - Page 253 - Historical Threads - 33andrain Jump to content
brooklynwx99

[Eastern US] Dec. 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

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29 minutes ago, Feb said:

But before December 13th the eps were horrible. They had November being a blowtorch because they mishandled the MJO back then. I remember a lot of mets hugging them and going for a warm November and got their lunch handed to them. The GEFS support what the strat guys and the the Mets that have nailed this winter so far so I would not just hug the eps. Do so at your own peril, ala November 2018 

 

There are no significant changes before the 10th.

There is nothing that points away from that.

 

There is a shortening of the wavelengths by the 9/10 period which I have liked but then you have to see what the 10th thru 15th looks like.

 

The EPS has handled the MJO better as it was the first to hang the MJO up in p5 and the GEFS has been forced to correct from its absurd 5 SD p7 a few days ago.

 

If you think theres a change before the 10th , I don't.

 

My date has been after the 10th. ( the EPS jeapordizes that ) .

 

If you think its close to the 15th , that's possible, but I would suggest not to ignore it because it's not what we all want. 

 

 

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Joe bastardi still thinking good stuff will come. We shall see tho. 

E7F6FC79-4AC4-438B-9DF6-8D3C9F9163D6.png

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9 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

There are no significant changes before the 10th.

There is nothing that points away from that.

 

There is a shortening of the wavelengths by the 9/10 period which I have liked but then you have to see what the 10th thru 15th looks like.

 

The EPS has handled the MJO better as it was the first to hang the MJO up in p5 and the GEFS has been forced to correct from its absurd 5 SD p7 a few days ago.

 

If you think theres a change before the 10th , I don't.

 

My date has been after the 10th. ( the EPS jeapordizes that ) .

 

If you think its close to the 15th , that's possible, but I would suggest not to ignore it because it's not what we all want. 

 

 

I agree nothing before the 10th. I doubt before the 20th honestly. But the eps would pretty much say nothing till February. That is an ugly look that would take awhile to clean up 

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For what little my opinion may be worth, until we see evidence of a 70N/70E ridge, I believe the EURO suite will reign supreme. Without evidence of that feature, it means that the entire wave alignment across the Northern Hemisphere will be off, when viewed from the perspective of getting a trough in the eastern CONUS with any staying power. It also negates the likelihood of any sustained favorable blocking for our region, in my opinion and unfortunately in spite of other factors in play. Without this feature being shown on ANY guidance, even that which appears favorable, I am hesitant, at best, to accept the favorable solutions as being more likely. Case in point, even the GEFS supports this stance through the mid-range, before again defaulting to a more favorable look beyond Day 10/11; but never progging it INSIDE of ten days, leading further support to the EURO suite’s ideas. Same goes for the Canadian Ensemble.

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To me the GEFS suggest mid month on we are ok. The EPS suggest the groundhog may hopefully come out on February 2nd and finally have winter weather approaching. 

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What I don’t understand is you guys saying the euro suite will be correct and reign supreme yet you are going against it basically because in no way, shape and form is it good through mid month. It would take several days to a couple of weeks to recover from what the eps are showing at hour 360. That basically takes you to the end of January. So if you believe it’s possible that come mid month we are doing better the eps will have to be wrong. 

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9 minutes ago, cerra679 said:

Shall we make a January discussion thread now?

Thank you. 

 

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