[Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs - Page 2 - Weather Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
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[Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is now the second time in two days that the FV3 has shown a large impact. That some EPS members and the operational ECMWF are showing the potential for a significant snowfall suggests that the timeframe in question is worth watching. Numerous snowy winters in the NYC area have been preceded by a significant December snowstorm and/or a very snowy December. Nothing is locked in, but the EPS has had sufficient run-to-run continuity to merit watching the timeframe in question.

So great to be reading your thoughts here at 33andrain, Don. (I was mikemost over on the old boards) Here's to a super snowy winter. We hope to see you around more often as the season progresses! 

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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's certainly been a lot more consistent than the operational GFS. The operational GFS has had some really big swings with respect to next weekend. The FV3 also outperformed the GFS on the November 15-16 snowstorm. The GFS was notably too warm in the mid- and lower-levels of the atmosphere from DCA to BDR. 

The fv3's thermal profiles certainly seem to be notably improved over the soon to be former GFS. I haven't seen soundings from it as of yet, but it's performance using contoured maps have impressed me to some extent thus far. 

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19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is now the second time in two days that the FV3 has shown a large impact. That some EPS members and the operational ECMWF are showing the potential for a significant snowfall suggests that the timeframe in question is worth watching. Numerous snowy winters in the NYC area have been preceded by a significant December snowstorm and/or a very snowy December. Nothing is locked in, but the EPS has had sufficient run-to-run continuity to merit watching the timeframe in question.

 

Couldn’t agree more, Don.

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24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's certainly been a lot more consistent than the operational GFS. The operational GFS has had some really big swings with respect to next weekend. The FV3 also outperformed the GFS on the November 15-16 snowstorm. The GFS was notably too warm in the mid- and lower-levels of the atmosphere from DCA to BDR. 

Happy to see you posting here, Don

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I hope it snows on Christmas Eve or Christmas day.

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Just now, WxLover said:

I hope it snows on Christmas Eve or Christmas day.

I can get behind this :) - I think we have a decent shot at there being snow on the ground either way.

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33andrain will be indispensable this season with its assembled talent.

Just wish there was an android app that made viewing on the go possible

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Just now, CCB! said:

I can get behind this :) - I think we have a decent shot at there being snow on the ground either way.

Do you know the last time we had a snowstorm on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day?

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1 minute ago, WxLover said:

Do you know the last time we had a snowstorm on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day?

Good question. Paging @uncle w, @burgwx, @donsutherland1 - I suppose this question pertains to the greater tri-state area, including NNJ.

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2 minutes ago, sferic said:

33andrain will be indispensable this season with its assembled talent.

Just wish there was an android app that made viewing on the go possible

We continue to work on making the mobile experience as user friendly as possible. Generally speaking, the mobile web works quite well. That comment will be passed onto the brass though!

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3 minutes ago, CCB! said:

Good question. Paging @uncle w, @burgwx, @donsutherland1 - I suppose this question pertains to the greater tri-state area, including NNJ.

Last year, on xmas eve, I had some snow that quickly changed to rain.  I was out, but grabbed this pic when I got home at around 10pm.

20171224_221055.jpg

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Just now, Frankdp23 said:

Last year, on xmas eve, I had some show that quickly changed to rain.  I was out, but grabbed this pic when I got home at around 10pm.

 

giphy (10).gif

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8 minutes ago, sferic said:

33andrain will be indispensable this season with its assembled talent.

Just wish there was an android app that made viewing on the go possible

What’s wrong with the mobile experience? It’s 100% responsive. Site should purr like a kitten on any device. 

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1 minute ago, *opengeo* said:

What’s wrong with the mobile experience? It’s 100% responsive. Site should purr like a kitten on any device. 

Any chance we can try Tapatalk again? 😁😁😁

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3 minutes ago, *opengeo* said:

What’s wrong with the mobile experience? It’s 100% responsive. Site should purr like a kitten on any device. 

Im 100% on mobile and it works great. 

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3 minutes ago, Weatherman89 said:

Any chance we can try Tapatalk again? 😁😁😁

I am literally going to look into it right now. But only because I love you all.

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15 minutes ago, *opengeo* said:

What’s wrong with the mobile experience? It’s 100% responsive. Site should purr like a kitten on any device. 

Must be my phone or browser. On Tablet it's puurfect

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Quickly reviewing the 18z GEFS trends... 

 

Like the EPS, the 50/50 low signal continues to garner support in conjunction with increased upstream PNA ridging. These features will aid in slowing down the flow & allowing cyclonic vorticity to consolidate at 500mb. The bottom line: The signal for a notable winter storm continues for the 12/8-12/9 timeframe. As discussed ad nauseum today by the likes of several premier posters, I agree that the primary "risk" in this case would be suppression. That being said, it's far too early to worry about any particular solution.

 

Setup the goal posts, a la the synoptic alignment. The waves will kick the field-goal.

 

(I hope you like football. If not, sorry if that makes zero sense)

 

faa6a635-ee97-4aba-9236-88ae7080760d.gif

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19 minutes ago, *opengeo* said:

I am literally going to look into it right now. But only because I love you all.

Tapatalk is great. That would be awesome if 33andrain was on it again.

 

Just tested 33andrain on wife's samsung s8..Purfect, my note 8 not so purfect...going to do factory reset as I might have done something

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