[Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs - Page 4 - Weather Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
brooklynwx99

[Eastern US] December 2018: Consolidated Discussion / Obs

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4 minutes ago, Archerdude44 said:

 

913D9FA5-E174-443E-A8B2-98D3D08D04E1.png

This run doesn’t look to go OTS to me. Either a warmer coastal hugger or a snowy solution, but what do I know?

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Just now, *opengeo* said:

CMC looks pretty damn good to me...

 

Screenshot 2018-11-30 23.25.52.png

Screenshot 2018-11-30 23.26.18.png

Come on, turn, turn...

 

C2D604CC-D82D-46EB-B3A8-923A7B5950AC.jpeg

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End of CMC...a great look 7 days out any day of the week and twice on Friday.

Screenshot 2018-11-30 23.27.28.png

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1 hour ago, CCB! said:

Quickly reviewing the 18z GEFS trends... 

 

Like the EPS, the 50/50 low signal continues to garner support in conjunction with increased upstream PNA ridging. These features will aid in slowing down the flow & allowing cyclonic vorticity to consolidate at 500mb. The bottom line: The signal for a notable winter storm continues for the 12/8-12/9 timeframe. As discussed ad nauseum today by the likes of several premier posters, I agree that the primary "risk" in this case would be suppression. That being said, it's far too early to worry about any particular solution.

 

Setup the goal posts, a la the synoptic alignment. The waves will kick the field-goal.

 

(I hope you like football. If not, sorry if that makes zero sense)

 

faa6a635-ee97-4aba-9236-88ae7080760d.gif

image.png

9d1591cc-a3cb-4ac8-a9b9-9efd9d90eb1f.gif

 

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GFS looks to be too progressive for the NYC metro, but a big hit south and east again. Very close to something bigger. We are all still very much in this game.

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Good god, If my measurements are correct(which is highly debatable) We could be looking at the largest tornado in recorded history. at over 3 1/2 miles wide.

tornado.png

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1 minute ago, *opengeo* said:

GFS looks to be too progressive for the NYC metro, but a big hit south and east again. Very close to something bigger. We are all still very much in this game.

I am sticking with the FV3 as it has been fairly consistent and has done better then the current GFS OP.

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2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I am sticking with the FV3 as it has been fairly consistent and has done better then the current GFS OP.

Want my advice...ride the Euro if you have to pick one right now. It's had issues in the super LR this Fall, but in this range, it's as deadly as its ever been. We don't know the first thing about the FV3 yet. It's biases, etc.

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Just now, *opengeo* said:

Want my advice...ride the Euro. It's had issues in the super LR this Fall, but in this range, it's as deadly as its ever been.

I was comparing the GFS/FV3, the Euro is obvious.

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Just now, Rtd208 said:

I was comparing the GFS/FV3, the Euro is obvious.

Ah. Certainly the FV3 has shown itself to have a better handle on thermal profiles. But that's not relevant here yet and it's not saying much since the old GFS sucks at mid-level temps. I think the FV3's verification scores are a tick better than the old GFS, but it's nothing overly impressive.

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1 minute ago, *opengeo* said:

Want my advice...ride the Euro if you have to pick one right now. It's had issues in the super LR this Fall, but in this range, it's as deadly as its ever been. We don't know the first thing about the FV3 yet. It's biases, etc.

True but why do we even enterrain the GooFuS here?? It can't find a snowball in a fn blizzard lately. We are very much in the game bigly in the synoptic set up. Patience my young Jedi. It will come.

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