[Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Discussion - Historical Threads - 33andrain Jump to content
33andrain

[Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Discussion

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Happy new year everyone. Kickin 2019 off with a cool 60 degrees. 🌞 

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Wouldn’t be surprised to see favorable trends today for the 1/9 system. 

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12z Gfs and cmc could not be further apart for 1/9. Neither is close to giving us wintry weather anyway. 

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10 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Wouldn’t be surprised to see favorable trends today for the 1/9 system. 

Cmc shreds the storm and it's alot colder than the gfs in the mid and long range.

 

Gfs is still stubborn on its northern solution

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Just now, 33andrain said:

12z Gfs and cmc could not be further part for 1/9. Neither is close to giving us wintry weather anyway. 

Rather have the cmc solution right now

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Cmc might be trying to setup something toward the end of the run. PNA spiking big time. I know I shouldn’t care; can’t help it. 

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17 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

53f, windy, saturated yard, snow pack = 0.0

Let’s allocate that trough over the eastern U.S. come mid to late January into February = “saturated yard”

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Dr Amy H butler that’s good agreement tho still prob won’t help us in the near future I believe. 

EFF3D65E-D088-493B-80BE-79C7F205A54F.png

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Once we got the downwelling and TPV coupling we good to go, right?

 

Edit: Ninja'd 

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Anyone have the 6z gfs ens for the 9-10th?

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GEFS sticking with the earlier transition beginning around 1/10.

 

Screenshot 2019-01-01 12.20.03.png

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22 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said:

 

Once we got the downwelling and TPV coupling we good to go, right?

 

Edit: Ninja'd 

We have to wait and see if the downwelling occurs, but from what I have been reading on the teleconnections thread (many thanks to the knowledgeable posters there), the fact that we have a +East Asian Mountain Torque going on should increase the chances that we see downwelling. As an aside, the GFS seems to be showing the stronger piece of the polar vortex coming over North America now.

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_28.png

This is in contrast to what it was showing previously, and I think it's a good trend. If I'm not mistaken, we want the PV right over the Hudson Bay for maximum favorable impacts to East coast. 

 

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