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[Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Discussion

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Excluding this weekend's event. Remember, this is an ensemble mean!

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I don't know what the SV ensemble snow maps actually show, but it's not the ensemble mean and they generally seem to be way overdone.

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2 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I don't know what the SV ensemble snow maps actually show, but it's not the ensemble mean and they generally seem to be way overdone.

Agree that their maps are to be taken with a large grain of salt... But I'm not sure I follow the ensemble maps not depicting the mean output. Could you elaborate?

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1 minute ago, CCB! said:

Agree that their maps are to be taken with a large grain of salt... But I'm not sure I follow the ensemble maps not depicting the mean output. Could you elaborate?

Ya I'm not sure either-overdone yes but what else would it be showing besides a mean?

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

Yuck at that mean snow map.

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1 minute ago, CCB! said:

Agree that their maps are to be taken with a large grain of salt... But I'm not sure I follow the ensemble maps not depicting the mean output. Could you elaborate?

The other maps on there are the ensemble mean (the SLP/precip/temps/etc), but I know their snow maps aren't...I'll post the 12z EPS mean snow through day 11 from WxBell below as an example, but it includes both storms and is much lower.  Someone else may know what the SV snow maps try to show...it's not the control, and it's not the mean.  I don't think it's the max snow from any member either as that would be even higher...maybe it does something weird where if the mean temp profile supports snow it counts the mean QPF in the previous 6 hours as snow, but that's a very odd thing to do to an ensemble and isn't the "ensemble mean snow."

 

574626054_EPSmeansnow.png.affe9384e6ba629a6e579e481e170575.png

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1 minute ago, OHweather said:

The other maps on there are the ensemble mean (the SLP/precip/temps/etc), but I know their snow maps aren't...I'll post the 12z EPS mean snow through day 11 from WxBell below as an example, but it includes both storms and is much lower.  Someone else may know what the SV snow maps try to show...it's not the control, and it's not the mean.  I don't think it's the max snow from any member either as that would be even higher...maybe it does something weird where if the mean temp profile supports snow it counts the mean QPF in the previous 6 hours as snow, but that's a very odd thing to do to an ensemble and isn't the "ensemble mean snow."

 

574626054_EPSmeansnow.png.affe9384e6ba629a6e579e481e170575.png

interesting. It's definitely not the max snow from one member as that is easily checked 

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I'm not buying in yet...we've been burned to many times nine days out...

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Definitely a bit of se ridge on the eps between the 20th-24th

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

9AC7E73E-75A3-4357-BD8B-A7FE6BA5D241.png

Idk how that isn’t higher. I really don’t lol

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Definitely a bit of se ridge on the eps between the 20th-24th

 

Not on W/B 

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1 minute ago, rb924119 said:

Idk how that isn’t higher. I really don’t lol

Too many rainers with the western lows tanking the mean snowfall. 

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Just now, rb924119 said:

Idk how that isn’t higher. I really don’t lol

Might be detecting some mixing near the coast (verbatim from the run).

 

image.png

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5 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The other maps on there are the ensemble mean (the SLP/precip/temps/etc), but I know their snow maps aren't...I'll post the 12z EPS mean snow through day 11 from WxBell below as an example, but it includes both storms and is much lower.  Someone else may know what the SV snow maps try to show...it's not the control, and it's not the mean.  I don't think it's the max snow from any member either as that would be even higher...maybe it does something weird where if the mean temp profile supports snow it counts the mean QPF in the previous 6 hours as snow, but that's a very odd thing to do to an ensemble and isn't the "ensemble mean snow."

Gotcha & I see what you're saying. That does leave me curious.

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1 minute ago, MesoBanding said:

Too many rainers with the western lows tanking the mean snowfall. 

And there are multiple complete whiffs. 

 

Its Still an insane mean for this range for you guys. 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Definitely a bit of se ridge on the eps between the 20th-24th

 

2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Not on W/B 

eps_z500a_nh_41.png

eps_z500a_nh_45.png

eps_z500a_nh_49.png

eps_z500a_nh_53.png

eps_z500a_nh_57.png

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7 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Yuck at that mean snow map.

I know that’s tongue in cheek but wow at that snow hole over our houses

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