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[Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Discussion

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Well at least we have the cold going for us. Down to 25 here

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Temp 27/DP 14 here and sipping a Bailey's hot chocolate. I have my heater on which is producing a white-noise like sound.

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26. Forecast low is 16 which would be my coldest since thanksgiving 

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2 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said:

Temp 27/DP 14 here and sipping a Bailey's hot chocolate. I have my heater on which is producing a white-noise like sound.

All that is missing is a nice..... lol

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Current temp down to 26 here.

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Just now, Allsnow said:

26. Forecast low is 16 which would be my coldest since thanksgiving 

You’ll definitely get there. I think 20 will be my limit here like last night

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

On January 8, the MJO was in Phase 8 at a high amplitude, the SOI was slightly positive, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was negative. That is a rare combination for January during El Niño winters. The last time it occurred during such a winter was January 17, 2003 as a significant pattern change was in its early stages of evolution. The following 30-day period was very snowy in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. New York City picked up 28.6" snow with the highlight of that period being a blockbuster President's Day snowstorm on February 15-17.

 

The general ideas on the road to the pattern change have worked out quite well so far. The SOI went negative and has been predominantly negative. The AO went negative. The first week of January was much warmer than normal with no snowfall. The second week of January is on course to be materially colder than the first week of the month. A storm will bring some snow mainly to parts of the Middle Atlantic region later tomorrow and Sunday.

 

The SOI was +2.31 today. It has been negative for 10 out of the last 12 days.

 

The AO was -2.166. That is the lowest AO value since it was -3.072 on November 27, 2018 and is the 6th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter has now gone slightly negative to -0.017.

 

On January 10, the MJO was in Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.607 (RMM). That amplitude was below the January 9-adjusted figure of 2.057.

 

Considerable uncertainty persists for the MJO's medium-term forecast. Both the GEFS and EPS forecast the MJO to move to low amplitude values through Phase 8. Both the EPS and Canadian ensembles bring it to Phase 5 with an amplitude of 1.000 or above. For now, with the MJO only slowly losing amplitude and the greater consistency of the statistical guidance, the baseline scenario remains the MJO's gradually moving through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude. It would then move into Phase 1 and probably into a low amplitude shortly afterward. As that happens, the AO could briefly approach or reach positive values before it returns to mainly negative values.

 

The prospects for snowfall in and around the New York City area will likely remain above climatology for at least the next two weeks, if not longer given the expected evolution of the teleconnections.

 

A predominant AO-/PNA+ combination remains likely after mid-month. The guidance continues to hint at the development of strong to perhaps severe blocking in the medium-range. An AO-/PNA+ combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's, 69% of Philadelphia's, and 64% of Washington D.C.'s 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a AO-/PNA+ combination.

 

During the January 12-13 period, Baltimore and Washington, DC remain in line to receive their biggest snowfall so far this season. This winter's biggest snowfall so far at both locations occurred during the November 15-16, 2018 snowstorm. That storm's accumulations were:

 

Baltimore: 1.7"
Washington, DC: 1.4"

 

The potential exists for 3"-6" in Washington, DC and possibly Baltimore. 2"-4" with locally higher amounts appears likely across southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey. Lesser amounts appear likely north of there, especially from central New Jersey northward across New York City and Long Island. Central Park could pick up a small accumulation of snow. This would be that area's biggest snowstorm since March 20-22, 2018.

 

Another storm could impact the region during the January 19-21 period. The possibility exists for a widespread moderate to significant snowfall.

 

The potential for above normal monthly snowfall remains on the table for such cities as Washington, Baltimore, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Allentown, New York, Islip, and possibly Providence and Boston (where 0.2" snow has fallen to date, 2nd lowest such figure since winter 1999-00 when no measurable snow had fallen through January 11).

 

Finally, the current El Niño event, which had been basinwide for through December may have begun to evolve toward a central Pacific-based event. During the week centered around January 2, the ENSO Region 1+2 weekly anomaly fell sharply from +0.8°C during the preceding week to +0.2°. Additional data will be needed to confirm such an evolution.

Great read Don as always 

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2 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:

Hills of NW jersey 

 

 

4337D66A-7DAB-45D6-9DFD-98E9E2FC0D76.jpeg

BEE58B19-7599-4623-8ADB-B7E4FC9D1A57.jpeg

95% humidity at 16*?  Solid. 

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Tons of Potential.

 

if that TPV can’t set in as models are prediciting, it could make last March look like an appetizer. 

 

Only fear at this point is coastal huggers due to ridge placement, but that is now not the time or place. 

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9 minutes ago, RAllen964 said:

Tons of Potential.

 

if that TPV can’t set in as models are prediciting, it could make last March look like an appetizer. 

 

Only fear at this point is coastal huggers due to ridge placement, but that is now not the time or place. 

Reasonable concern but not one that would persist IMO. That would be a worry for 1/20 not thereafter 

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59 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:

Hills of NW jersey 

 

Wow, shorts weather. Nice stove.

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20 minutes ago, Armando S said:

 

 

Yes, exactly. We can begin to see the process unfold across the Eastern Hemisphere via 200mb wave activity flux (anomaly). No doubt that we're, and have been, seeing the bonafide signals for a hemispheric reshuffle. This process here, through equatorward wave breaking, will make way into the western hemisphere and specifically - the Atlantic. This then will allow for a retrograded ridge/-NAO right into Baffin Bay/western Greenland. You can see that clearly on the 18z GFS run today.

 

Screen Shot 2019-01-11 at 8.02.06 PM.pngY

 

 

As that occurs post 20th, we have a "maturing", meridional pacific jet structure where wavelengths tighten BEFORE this said period. Something that hasn't been seen in a good bit is poleward heat transport into the Arctic/Pacific side (Chukchi Sea). GFS for example shows this process in the form of Theta (lots of latent heat) approaching 99th percentile.

 

 

 

pac_f192.png

 

 

Result? Retracted pacific jet and our good 'old friend the Okhotsk " monster". EURO shows this even as a sub 980mb low! Note also the wave breaking that ensues that gets this EPO domain to work in tangent with a maturing PNA. Also, this precedes a very favorable stretch as well -- that is also crucial (still some uncertainty regarding the western domain I'll admit, but this is the best synoptic waveguide thus far this winter and with support). 

 

pac_f168.png

 

 

 

 

Our patience appears to merit reward(s). 

Excellent discussion 

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