[Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Discussion - Page 179 - 33andrain Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
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[Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Discussion

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1 minute ago, ThatHurricane said:

This would be very cool and probably my coldest temperature ever felt (I would be very excited) but I feel like the FV3 exaggerates cold temperatures. Around Christmas, they had cold waves around 10 degrees in NYC for last week, which didn’t happen. Does anyone know why this would happen on the FV3?

Because it’s a Bad model 

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Just now, earthlight said:

I continue to think that talk of a warm/rain threat near 1/20 and connecting that back to the MJO is off base. That’s not how this works IMO.

 

It does partly because of SE ridge effects , no? 

 

I personally don’t see a warm threat for 01/20 - If anything it’s an out to sea threat that I’m more worried about. But that’s for another time. 

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3 minutes ago, LI_Weather said:

7128C870-773E-4BDD-ABF8-0714EAC6683B.png

I think I’d prob find a new hobby if that verified 

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1 minute ago, earthlight said:

I continue to think that talk of a warm/rain threat near 1/20 and connecting that back to the MJO is off base. That’s not how this works IMO.

It should be instructive to many of us in here, less knowledgable about meteorology , to watch one as educated in the ways of the science say IMO, since there is very little opinion and very much science and equal humility involved. #Respect 

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I honestly think that the MJO won't be a big factor for the rest of winter. The SSW and other favorable teleconnections should overpower it, even in a moderately high state IMO.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

The problem is, w/ a very ephemeral PNA burst followed by deamplification, it elevates the risk of the following: 1) disorganization / lack of consolidation of the short wave downstream; 2) depending upon the interaction with the northern stream, it can imply either suppression or a warmer outcome. Whereas, with a stable, amplified PNA, the downstream energy is forced to consolidate and pivot northeastward up the East Coast, and any semblance of downstream -NAO blocking would obviate the warmer outcome. The poor upstream Pacific can thus result in an unfavorable outcome via something like the GFS indicates - a glorified cold front - or something like the Euro indicates, an offshore track. One would want to see material changes in the upstream handling of the Pacific, b/c rapid deamplification will imply strung-out energy and no bombing/tucked coastal low on the east coast.

Great Post. If the front blasts through the pna collapsing would favor a euro type solution. The northern stream would never line up and act as a kicker. If we get amplification out west it would definitely cut west of the 95 area. It’s a delicate balance and one I wouldn’t get my Hopes High on. 

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The Euro today shows that there’s a lot of variation yet. We’ve seen the cutter scenarios, and now there’s the almost OTS solution. We’ve got some time until it’s resolved.

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Here's your fix , pull the negative off the WC to that position,  it pulls the ridge axis with it , speed up the S branch by 6 hours and you run that up to the BM in what looks like a full latitude trough. 

 

At 8 days away I think that looks good enough. ....

 

 

20190112_140239.png

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

E5695EF3-0E88-4E36-B151-DFD45EDC8AC0.png

Amazing look here. The only thing I’m really hung up on with this storm is the models latching onto the idea of a strung out piece of energy with multiple waves along a front. If we could get this to consolidate a bit before ejecting I think we could have a big one on our hands. 

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2 minutes ago, MikeBWeather said:

Amazing look here. The only thing I’m really hung up on with this storm is the models latching onto the idea of a strung out piece of energy with multiple waves along a front. If we could get this to consolidate a bit before ejecting I think we could have a big one on our hands. 

Still think it could be big even if its a little strung out. but if its strung out offshore then no 

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