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[Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Discussion

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3 minutes ago, RAllen964 said:

 

Exactly. All it takes is 6 hours to get TPV to hold back or STJ to speed up. 

 

Very doable 

Particularly the second point here. The TPV acts as a press & pendulum in this setup. It compresses the northern SW into the the southern disturbance and swings the phased solution underneath its counter clockwise flow. This is why you most likely want to see an elongated, further south TPV. In essence, in contrast to the war cries that confluence is killer! We may want to see the opposite in this setup to prevent an inland solution, & to help the pieces of vorticity coalesce... As discussed in detail over the past few days, note any trends in the NAO domain over the next week on guidance, as that will have a distinct effect on this feature. 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Let’s just work on getting a inch of snow first lol 

Lmao I know I’m just loving the look of the pattern coming up

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h5 on GEFS mean is nearly perfect!

gfs-ens_z500a_us_31.png

0e2f0256-c6cd-47e5-a3c4-6b94129dae0b.gif

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Baltimore and Washington, DC are poised to pick up their biggest snowstorm since March 20-22, 2018 and possibly January 22-23, 2016. Washington, DC could receive 4"-8" snow and Baltimore 3"-6" snow by the time the storm departs on Sunday. Some locally higher amounts are likely in and around the Washington area. Atlantic City, Philadelphia and Harrisburg could see 2"-4". A coating remains possible from central New Jersey to perhaps even parts of New York City. The 18z RGEM shows potential for up to 0.5" in New York City, so there is some support for a coating in the City.

 

Additional storms are likely over the following 1-2 weeks as winter begins to lock the region into a generally cold and snowy grip.

 

The SOI was -5.84 today. It has been negative for 11 out of the last 13 days.

 

The AO was -1.400. That is the 7th consecutive day the AO has been negative. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.050.

 

On January 11, the MJO was in Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.060 (RMM). That amplitude was below the January 10-adjusted figure of 1.606.

 

Uncertainty persists for the MJO's medium-term forecast. Taking into consideration the greater consistency of the statistical guidance, the baseline scenario remains the MJO's gradually moving into Phase 1 at perhaps a low amplitude or moving into low amplitude shortly afterward. Once that happens, the MJO could spend an extended period at a low amplitude. The ensemble forecasts for a prolonged AO- are consistent with the MJO's being in a mainly low amplitude.

 

A predominant AO-/PNA+ combination remains likely after mid-month. The guidance continues to hint at the development of strong to perhaps severe blocking in the medium-range. An AO-/PNA+ combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms. Since 1950, 68% of New York City's, 69% of Philadelphia's, and 64% of Washington D.C.'s 6" or greater January snowfalls occurred with a AO-/PNA+ combination. Today's Middle Atlantic snowstorm is occurring with just such a combination (preliminary PNA: +0.818).

 

Following this weekend's storm, another storm or storms could impact the region during the January 19-21 period and again during the January 23-25 period. The possibility exists for a widespread moderate to significant snowfall from either or both of these events.

 

The potential for above normal monthly snowfall remains on the table for such cities as Washington, Baltimore, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Allentown, New York, Islip, and possibly Providence and Boston (where 0.2" snow has fallen to date, 2nd lowest such figure since winter 1999-00 when no measurable snow had fallen through January 12). In fact, following the current storm, Washington, DC's snowfall could exceed the January normal figure.

 

The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature in the New York City area is also increasing.

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13 minutes ago, MesoBanding said:

FV3 (“new, old NAM”)

A3BDA817-05D3-48CF-9AE9-E31A32505567.png

 

Yea I think that is as close to perfect as we can get on this. 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, CCB! said:

h5 on GEFS mean is nearly perfect!

The "take w/a grain of salt" sv maps for this event alone... Someone with wxbell or another service feel free to post the mean/members. 

5c3a7d88b59e0.png

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1 minute ago, BL74 said:

(For PA N Roughly). This includes tonight’s system for VA/MD/DC

Wow. 

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5 minutes ago, earthlight said:

Sheesh

2DB24E62-948F-41D6-8194-570E5D0FC2C9.png

Ever that good this far out?  I mean ever???

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maxresdefault.jpg

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