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[Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Discussion

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33 minutes ago, cerra679 said:

 

 

750A5EED-CE0E-486C-9F51-145361A719C0.gif

E906C588-41CF-461C-82CD-810067FA303E.gif

 

Thank you sir. Very much appreciated.  Is there an image for the previous day as well? 1/8?   Curious to see where/how it develops as that seems to be key.   Thanks again 

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1 hour ago, Feb said:

It’s really on its own.  Nothing else is even close to it. Time will tell I guess 

 

The Canadian ensembles look just like Timmy's EPS

cmc_t2ma_5d_noram_57.png

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6 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

The Canadian ensembles look just like Timmy's EPS

cmc_t2ma_5d_noram_57.png

You realize those 2m temp charts are not to be used as gospel right?? The 500 pattern is NOTHING like your EPS 

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3 minutes ago, Chrisbo007 said:

 

Thank you sir. Very much appreciated.  Is there an image for the previous day as well? 1/8?   Curious to see where/how it develops as that seems to be key.   Thanks again 

Yes. Let’s take bsr really seriously...

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2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

The Canadian ensembles look just like Timmy's EPS

cmc_t2ma_5d_noram_57.png

The Canadian looks nothing like the EPS at 500mb. EPS is 100% on its own with zero support. 

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This is why you don’t post 2m temps 

4AF92C0E-FA4A-414D-9CC5-E1B7CE9354BC.png

FEF57031-17E4-45CF-99DF-D92E43583115.png

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On 1/1/2019 at 5:07 PM, Feb said:

You realize those analogy charts are not to be used as gospel right?? The 500 pattern is NOTHING like your EPS 

 

That's a 5 day mean for the 10th - 15th in which now 2 ensembles are AN for the same period.

 

My period has been Jan 10 - Feb 20  so I am not worried but there seems to be some real angst that we are still not good until the 15th.

 

And I am not sure why , I think several posters in here have liked everything after the 15th , so the above does not jeapordize any of that.

 

If the period is really Jan 15 to March 15 is anyone going to complain that the MJO lag cost you 5 xtra days ? 

 

Patience....

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16 minutes ago, Chrisbo007 said:

 

Thank you sir. Very much appreciated.  Is there an image for the previous day as well? 1/8?   Curious to see where/how it develops as that seems to be key.   Thanks again 

 

You can access BSR data anytime here: http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2019-01-January.htm

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On 1/1/2019 at 5:08 PM, 33andrain said:

The Canadian looks nothing like the EPS at 500mb. EPS is 100% on its own with zero support. 

 

The EPS at d15 was just horrible and one can only hope it busts 

 

I showed you the GEFS busts in here today. 

 

Its handling of the MJO the last few days with its 5SD p7 was really bad. 

 

You need not ignore the model IMO , it didn't have support on Dec 15th.

 

Both have a lot of Pac flow in here.

 

B careful the 10 thru 15 is all , I have no changed for the overall winter , but I am cautious for just that period my man.

eps_z500a_5d_noram_57.png

cmc_z500a_5d_noram_57-1.png

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37 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Yes. Let’s take bsr really seriously...

 

BSR is really just another model run situated in the relative medium range, which only relies on teleconnections. It’s much better than 384hr maps that have bias attached and that change every run.

 

Verification of BSR is also here: http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018_Verify.php

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Gfs has a lakes cutter for the 8th

 

Pattern does get more favorable than the 12z run

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My issue with the GEFS vs the EPS from last month was that I bought the GEFS and it was what I argued with for a Christmas flip.

 

This period ended up +8.6 F @ knyc.

 

So understand I am using the EPS as I believe it will eventually get us home , but I just think it's a few days more than some would like. 

 

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_65-4(1).png

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14 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

My issue with the GEFS vs the EPS from last month was that I bought the GEFS and it was what I argued with for a Christmas flip.

 

This period ended up +8.6 F @ knyc.

 

So understand I am using the EPS as I believe it will eventually get us home , but I just think it's a few days more than some would like. 

 

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_65-4(1).png

The eps would imply we punt January. The look is awful at hour 360 and would take awhile to fix. 

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GEFS go wild again this run. Changes start on the 10th

C510AB64-D894-4D46-AB9E-70FC34699497.png

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4 minutes ago, Feb said:

 

And take note that the model making these changes are the EPS, the very model some are using saying they have a better handle on what is going on. They don’t and are adjusting and playing catch up 

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

FAE39DA9-2A55-4A79-935D-CEF6C8BB2906.png

I like when you do a “wow”

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