[Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Discussion - Page 14 - Historical Threads - 33andrain Jump to content
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[Eastern US] Jan. 2019 Pattern & Forecast Discussion

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23 minutes ago, WxBillMoHill said:

I've been on board with CFS MJO more so than ECMWF yet this latest GEFS looks like a wrench.

 

ensplume_full.gif

 

Even the GFS doesn't agree with the GEFS. The GFS has a slow propagation towards Phase 8.

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18z gfs one rain storm after the next,,,when will this end

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2 minutes ago, Jake732 said:

18z gfs one rain storm after the next,,,when will this end

It’s a sick joke lol. It’s hard to break a pattern. Everything must  align  Perfectly. 

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50 minutes ago, Event Horizon said:

 

Even the GFS doesn't agree with the GEFS. The GFS has a slow propagation towards Phase 8.

I was referring to CFS MJO forecast not GFS MJO

 

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7 minutes ago, Jake732 said:

18z gfs one rain storm after the next,,,when will this end

It ends mid month

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4 minutes ago, WxBillMoHill said:

I was referring to CFS MJO forecast not GFS MJO

 

 

I know. I'm just telling you the comparison between the GFS and GEFS MJO Phases. 

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2 hours ago, Lostboy63 said:

Big blue ball of cold over Canada

fv3p_z500a_namer_65.png

 

ice_dragon____winter_call_by_winterkeep-d5xbpic.jpg

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2 hours ago, Lostboy63 said:

Big blue ball of cold over Canada

fv3p_z500a_namer_65.png

    This lines up with my thinking on the importance of a negative WPO run and how I believe that we won't get a legit pattern flip until it happens. I believe that the FV3 and GEFS have been handling the SSWE much better than other guidance has and in turn the teleconnection reaction to it. Hopefully other guidance will correct once the PV split is complete and we can get some downward propagation. 

1.2.19.GEFS.WPO.png

1.2.19.FV3.WPO.png

1.2.19.ECMWF.WPO.png

1.2.19.EPS.EPO.png

mytwocents.jpg

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2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45-1.png

Frames are a little less broken on the 500 vorticity maps: 

fv3p_z500_vort_us_fh198-276.gif

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Patience.

 

Does look like Europe will kick start winter before us int the meantime

8F4808E0-D22C-42CE-99B7-6A1108283416.png

DFDA0AC9-B2F2-481F-89B8-4286763CBA00.png

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combined_image.png  

 

when I'm looking at this diagram and it says November December January which month is it representing

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Fv3 really kicking up the cold after Jan 10th. Will other models cave?

99BC2B50-A98D-40CC-B13B-EBD779946A3D.png

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25 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Need two more small corrections here. 

 

eps_z500a_noram_37(1210).png.5756bb2d96f937e53ed1e498fc225a86.png

 

eps_z500a_noram_29(56).png.ba05b1f2a9c2626b89dc1843618d74b5.png

 

Along with the threat on the 13th I believe we have 2 threats in the middle of a period where people are cliff diving. 

 

 

I think the threat on the 9th is a north of Boston threat. 13th is too far out but again I would sooner be in CNE and NNE. After that I think it’s game on for everyone, despite the inferno implied by the EPS. 

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33 minutes ago, Feb said:

I think the threat on the 9th is a north of Boston threat. 13th is too far out but again I would sooner be in CNE and NNE. After that I think it’s game on for everyone, despite the inferno implied by the EPS. 

 

I want to see if we could get HP to come out over the top of the 1st Low as it exits the 4 corners so it can sit on it as it comes east.

The EPS is close. 

I like the ridge axis for the 13th , I think that comes out of the S.

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