January 7th-8th 2019 Snow/Sleet/Rain Obs. - Historical Threads - 33andrain Jump to content
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January 7th-8th 2019 Snow/Sleet/Rain Obs.

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32 here after a burst of sleet. 

 

 

C7C151BE-4BF7-4E2D-A4E0-24D4D9EA058B.gif

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Some pretty lazy sleet pellets here in Kew Gardens, was hoping for a few flakes before something possibly more significant on Sunday but not this go around I guess

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RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
544 PM EST Mon Jan 7 2019

CTZ005-NJZ002-004-103-NYZ067>070-081000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0001.190108T0600Z-190108T1500Z/
Northern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-
Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
544 PM EST Mon Jan 7 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

 

 

Temp 29*

DP 6*

Light Sleet here

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ZR/Sleet and wind gusting to 45. Insane weather right now!

 

#PatternChange 

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We may have to deal with some localized thunderstorms with grapuel tomorrow night across portions of PA and NY. 

 

Vort max is pretty potent. 

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This is a good sign for trends the rest of winter !! Wish casting here everyone but ...

 

Biggest change to the forecast this evening is to issue a winter
weather advsy for portions of the Lower Hud Valley, interior
southwest CT and NE NJ. Model soundings become concerning
between 8-11z with the loss of ice nucleation and the profiles
saturated below the freezing mark beneath it. This would lead
to a period of freezing rain before sfc temps warm with
increasing WAA and onshore flow. This would also be occurring
during the morning commute. Highest confidence in at least a
trace to a few hundredths of ice is across NW zones where the
WSW has been issued. May need to eventually expand this east
across the remainder of interior southern CT, but have
maintained the SPS for now due to lower confidence.

Initial band of pcpn moving across western zones has been drying
out as it moves east due to the extremely dry airmass (see 00z
OKX sounding) Have seen a few MPING reports of ice pellets
across northern NJ as it moved through, so have adjusted the wx
grids to better reflect that this eve.

Better chances for anything reaching the ground would be after
midnight across northeastern NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley as
the low level jet begins to strengthen in response to the
approaching parent low.

Otherwise, expect a non-diurnal trend with warm advection.
Minimum temperatures will be achieved early and will be within a
few degrees of climatological normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures are expected to quickly rise to above freezing
through Tuesday morning, with any remaining wintry mix across
the interior transitioning to all rain. With drier air
developing aloft, moisture depth will be limited into the
afternoon, limiting overall accumulations and intensity of any
remaining precipitation. -Upton

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WWA issued for up to an inch for Monmouth.. seems a bit aggressive no? 

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1 hour ago, Mriceyman said:

WWA issued for up to an inch for Monmouth.. seems a bit aggressive no? 

if freezing rain is involved, it doesnt matter what the snow accumulation is

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Just posted this elsewhere - figured I'd share it here.  

 

Winter weather advisories from the NWS-Phiully were greatly expanded a little while ago for the overnight hours for most of NJ and eastern PA, mostly for the risk of about 0.05-0.10" of freezing rain (and maybe 1/2" of sleet/snow) along and SE of 95, from Wilmington, DE up to NYC, and for 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain (and up to 1" or so of snow/sleet) for areas inland of 95, especially also north of 78.

 

The advisory lasts until about 7 am along and SE of 95, which is when temps should get to above 32F, changing the precip to light rain; most major roads should be wet, but some secondary roads and sidewalks/driveways could be icy. For areas NW of 95 and especially N of 78 (and W of 287), freezing rain could last through the morning rush before temps go above freezing, so icy roads are more of a risk.

 

The NWS in NYC is not predicting nearly as much freezing rain (<0.05") for adjacent parts of their forecast area, like NE NJ, NYC, the Hudson Valley and LI/CT. They only have advisories up for NW Passaic, NW Bergen and NY/CT north of the Tappan Zee/Merritt. It's nearly impossible that both NWS office forecasts can verify, since there's no way one can go from 0.12" of freezing rain to 0.03" of freezing rain, for example, by simply crossing a county line.

 

https://www.weather.gov/PHI

 

No photo description available.

 

No photo description available.

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Where is the precip? I had an hour of precip and thats it lol..

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