[Mid-Atlantic] 1/12-1/13 Snowstorm Obs & Discussion - Thread Archive - 33andrain Jump to content
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[Mid-Atlantic] 1/12-1/13 Snowstorm Obs & Discussion

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nam_z500_vort_us_fh36_trend.gif.f90ddde13e7e3598efd0610815089006.gifLooking ahead, TPV on NAM looks more relaxed, last three runs, 12z last 

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Not holding back as much energy out west l either.  May allow the ridge to hang on a bit longer before being undercut.  Heights on the EC look to be the same though.

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Depressing to see that in the Midwest and know it’s likely eventual fate downstream!

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6 minutes ago, MesoBanding said:

Depressing to see that in the Midwest and know it’s likely eventual fate downstream!

 

Yeah - and It's ostensibly a nice improvement on this run with regard to amplification/slightly relaxed confluence & higher EC heights. It's pretty impressive how the system has trended towards a closed off ULL for a period of time in the nation's mid-section... But the shredder lies in wait, regardless of the upstream improvements.

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This was the 12z nam in its weenie range. Hoping for some over running coating 

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3 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

This was the 12z nam in its weenie range. Hoping for some over running coating

Ice storm for portions of the piedmont/MA as depicted here. Pretty solid accumulations as you move into the midsection of VA though!

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namconus_asnow_neus_fh84_trend.gif.99588167a1719552e6cfeb99cb40e17e.gifI know I know, long range NAM snow maps. However I wanted to post this as a baseline so we can compare both future runs, as well as when the event is over, we can see what the NAM was thinking at 84 hours out ;) Good luck to all, here's to a snowy rest of our winter 

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Icon has some over running, and keeps coastal precip south of Mason-Dixon Line 

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1 hour ago, Qtown Snow said:

FWIW, this was the 6z hires nam radar prediction 

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this is composite not base reflective radar do you have that ?

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4 minutes ago, whiteoutMD said:

this is composite not base reflective radar do you have that ?

No sv doesn't have that. 

 

12z hires nam prediction

 

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Gfs flatter this run. Light snow from nyc for the initial over running. Any effects from the costal is felt in se Virginia 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Gfs flatter this run. Light snow from nyc for the initial over running. Any effects from the costal is felt in se Virginia 

I just want to see some snow flying around. Would be nice lol. 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs flatter this run. Light snow from nyc for the initial over running. Any effects from the costal is felt in se Virginia 

For posters like us up in the tri-state, I think a flatter solution may actually be best at this juncture. It keeps the energy dispersed longer instead of wrapping it up around the coastal. So perhaps the overrunning hangs out a bit longer for some light accumulations. It would of course lower the ceiling for posters in the mid-Atlantic, but they're still in a prime spot, all things considered.

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1 minute ago, CCB! said:

For posters like us up in the tri-state, I think a flatter solution may actually be best at this juncture. It keeps the energy dispersed longer instead of wrapping it up around the coastal. So perhaps the overrunning hangs out a bit longer for some light accumulations. It would of course lower the ceiling for posters in the mid-Atlantic, but they're still in a prime spot, all things considered.

Great Post, Mike. 

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