[Mid-Atlantic] 1/12-1/13 Snowstorm Obs & Discussion - Page 21 - Thread Archive - 33andrain Jump to content
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[Mid-Atlantic] 1/12-1/13 Snowstorm Obs & Discussion

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The 18Z Nam has the most favorable look by a good amount out of all the 18z models so far for those hoping for miracle.  The NAM has continuously adjusted northward with the TPV while the GFS and RGEM have gone back and forth. The RGEM and and GFS have the backside of the TPV a bit south of where the NAM has it which has big implications. I'm looking forward to the 0Z NAM to see if it continues its northward trend. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, mbaer1970 said:

I'm not sure if these were already posted and apologize if they were, but FWIW here's the 15z SREF-ARW and NMB.

57Asnowfall_total_accum_10to1_members_PANJDE_hr057.png

57snowfall_total_accum_10to1_members_PANJDE_hr057.png

Those are juicy! Member 11 ARW for me please. Member 06 ARW is epic for East South Jersey. Anybody know why SREFs show way more snow than any other model out there? Is this always the case? 

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3 minutes ago, mbaer1970 said:

I'm not sure if these were already posted and apologize if they were, but FWIW here's the 15z SREF-ARW and NMB.

57Asnowfall_total_accum_10to1_members_PANJDE_hr057.png

57snowfall_total_accum_10to1_members_PANJDE_hr057.png

I will take member 11 please

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Good returns about to enter the DC metro area 

F3BD2A29-20E1-449C-9FBB-A3D8930D739D.png

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At this point i am happy for a dusting for nyc and li

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12 minutes ago, mbaer1970 said:

I'm not sure if these were already posted and apologize if they were, but FWIW here's the 15z SREF-ARW and NMB.

57Asnowfall_total_accum_10to1_members_PANJDE_hr057.png

57snowfall_total_accum_10to1_members_PANJDE_hr057.png

Member 10 plssssss

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Good returns about to enter the DC metro area 

F3BD2A29-20E1-449C-9FBB-A3D8930D739D.png

Been snowing for past 2 hours here with tiny tiny flakes -- 1/4" so far. This should be a fun change

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1 minute ago, Caminhoneiro443 said:

Been snowing for past 2 hours here with tiny tiny flakes -- 1/4" so far. This should be a fun change

similar situation here. About 1/2 block from NW DC

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From what I can tell, the radar is coming in slightly stronger than modeled on the HRRR:

HRRR 21z for 6 PM EST:                                

image.png.bc78815f235c992edc8f9e164ffc1658.png 

 

  Actual: 

   image.png.7e4afd1d2590a4152c5449ecf7efcbc8.png

Looks like snow reaching into DE and PA, definitely further North than modeled on the HRRR. Let's see what happens folks. While it's unlikely, it won't take much for this storm to amplify and expand the reach of precip. What we need is for the confluence to move out faster than modeled and allow this storm to come North. 

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10 out of the 24 combined members would make me happy up here in Cumberland county PA, but at this point I am honestly ready to move on from this potential, as my area was always on the northern 1-3/2-4 fringe, so I get what I get and hope many in the meat of this storm overperform. It would be cool to see the folks in Bmore and DC get 12-18.

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3 minutes ago, mbaer1970 said:

10 out of the 24 combined members would make me happy up here in Cumberland county PA, but at this point I am honestly ready to move on from this potential, as my area was always on the northern 1-3/2-4 fringe, so I get what I get and hope many in the meat of this storm overperform. It would be cool to see the folks in Bmore and DC get 12-18.

12-18" sounds great😁😁😁

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5 minutes ago, mbaer1970 said:

10 out of the 24 combined members would make me happy up here in Cumberland county PA, but at this point I am honestly ready to move on from this potential, as my area was always on the northern 1-3/2-4 fringe, so I get what I get and hope many in the meat of this storm overperform. It would be cool to see the folks in Bmore and DC get 12-18.

I'd take that any day of the week. places from Baltimore to NYC get some good snow

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2 minutes ago, Caminhoneiro443 said:

Snow seems to have picked up a bit 

Yep. Had a 30 min lull but it's heavier now 1158189501_ScreenShot2019-01-12at6_10_18PM.png.7c0d54f955e0a0bd21bf2f5dd250ed74.png

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how accurate is the RAP model? is that alarming that this close to the event its bombing off coast?

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Still expecting around a coating to an inch in the NYC metro but will continue to monitor model/radar trends for any northward adjustments. 

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31 w/ light snow here in Silver Spring Twps., Cumberland county PA.

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1 minute ago, Mcttothejj said:

how accurate is the RAP model? is that alarming that this close to the event its bombing off coast?

Not very accurate at all 

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