[Mid-Atlantic] 1/12-1/13 Snowstorm Obs & Discussion - Page 3 - Thread Archive - 33andrain Jump to content
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[Mid-Atlantic] 1/12-1/13 Snowstorm Obs & Discussion

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12z GEFS ensemble precip type/qpf from hour 54 through 72

54.png

60.png

66.png

72.png

78.png

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4 minutes ago, Caminhoneiro443 said:

5 inches less than last run 😢

The last two storms have trended north so I'm not too worried. Remember last storm when three days prior, snow wasn't expected to get past Richmond? Then is slowly creeped north. 

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9 minutes ago, Logan Giles said:

The last two storms have trended north so I'm not too worried. Remember last storm when three days prior, snow wasn't expected to get past Richmond? Then is slowly creeped north. 

Lol but we all know DC has a way to repel snow

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NWS Sterling snow maps are officially out for this event. Good upside for upper advisory/lower warning criteria with no chance of dry slotting as other posters alluded to high mid level humidity values. I will take 3-6 out of this one. Would think that the 2" line should be shifted ~30 miles NE (past Baltimore) on the expected snowfall map. Really gotta wish that the Ravens beat the Chiefs Week 14 so we could play this game in snowy weather! (we would have a first round bye). As you should note, the low end is 1 and high is 5 (beginning of warning criteria) so these forecasts are on the low end. My first guess: 2-4 inches Baltimore metro, 3-6 DC. Outside of DC metro SW: 4-9 inches. Models do tend to shift storm north so it could be adjusted upwards.

 

Chances of various amounts in % (Baltimore/DC):

.1"+: 100/1001"+: 92/96

 

2"+: (Advisory Level): 53/84

 

4"+: 32/39

 

6"+: (1 inch above warning level) 1/19

 

Capture.PNG.7d179cd01f4b7a9e1a55e1161a421514.PNG

 

Capture.PNG.eaf1e2b63590541c0ec1832f7daffe9c.PNG

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Kevin49068487 said:

Mt. Holly isn't calling for much for NJ at all. 

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

It should definitely be higher, at least for Delaware and SNJ

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5 minutes ago, Kevin49068487 said:

Mt. Holly isn't calling for much for NJ at all.

That's only to 7:00am Sunday. Much of the snow that's forecast to fall in the southern portion of that CWA would occur after 7:00am... That being said, central/northern areas may end up staying around those numbers.

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atm the trends are getting colder in NC. Could be a bad ice/sleet storm.

 

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This is the look of a big snowstorm but confluence shreds it.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png

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Not the best run but better than 12z. Hoping for a conventional last minute trend north. 

 

 

Oh, and king ICON also north

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12:1 maybe even 15:1

10 minutes ago, Logan Giles said:

Watch for ratios to exceed 10:1 due to pretty cold air aloft 

Screen Shot 2019-01-10 at 4.37.36 PM.png

 

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