[Mid-Atlantic] 1/12-1/13 Snowstorm Obs & Discussion - Page 5 - Thread Archive - 33andrain Jump to content
Dsnowx53

[Mid-Atlantic] 1/12-1/13 Snowstorm Obs & Discussion

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My call is 2-4” for DC area.  3-5” near EZF.  Parrs Ridge area could see 3-5” too.

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6z nam big adjustment north.  Gfs adjusted north as well still not showing the QPF yet but it will adjust later.  Let’s bring this one home.

82A3F820-98EF-4E1D-A0AC-0959DC99386D.png

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Honestly think it’s just noise, but we’ll see :)

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6z NAM vs 0z:

 

The NAM is a bit more zealous with bringing the TPV towards Western NY State, resulting in a very favorable interaction with the southern stream at this juncture. Check out the height responses

 

0A761591-4713-4BA9-962C-61ADF44E6C82.gif.bde82716b9abd750ee9345a0c8470f90.gif

 

6z GFS vs 0z:

 

7EBB7FE1-197A-417D-B91B-82263DE2BD2C.gif.b2cd39da27d70b8e1237e60b1b0a3af8.gif

 

Meanwhile, the 6z GFS just relaxes/slows the TPV press. Interesting trends, NAM kind of on its own here, but worth watching. 

 

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This is why I wanted that stupid thing to drop in and phase. We may be running out of time, but if you wanted to hope for a miracle, this is a trend to start with. Look how the buckling/dropping in of the TPV to the southwest adjusts the ULJ. It's still too zonal on its own for a good snow event, but hey, it's something.

 

namconus_uv250_eus_fh54_trend.gif

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4 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said:

I'm...well...saying there's a small, small, small chance?

 

The older GFS runs that had a significant impact here had part of the TPV phasing into our shortwave. While we won't get to that level of interaction that was previously shown most likely, any little bit counts. Lets see what the upcoming 12Z NAM brings along with the other models.

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One more small adjustment 50 miles west of the tpv and we could be talking 4-6” from Philly south east and even more as you get closer to DC to the DE coasts and south.

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5 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

 

Yes the TPV has squashed any high ceiling potential but in terms of a little stronger amplification process from the coastal low forming off the coast you cant rule that out. Depending on how stretched out the lobe can reach can have implications on impacts. Im not including NYC and northern sections but south NJ and some portions of Maryland and Delaware should not let their guard down..btw this post was from yesterday morning still have about 24 hours for more change

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DCA looks great for a nice 3-6 event. Enjoy! 

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Nice bump north on the 06z eps

9B9505DC-4695-4EEC-90E2-2335FA4442FA.png

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