[Northeast US] 1/20 Significant Winter Storm and Cold Snap - Historical Threads - 33andrain Jump to content
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[Northeast US] 1/20 Significant Winter Storm and Cold Snap

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Again, a deamplified PNA ridge is seemingly a good thing here... TPV lobe ends up further east. The more progressive scenario is a better one in this setup. It also keeps northeast height field more compressed. Hopefully we'll see a similar trend in the globals. 

b0af83f3-e6de-4687-aa16-cc7c0f4b21c5.gif

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Uh oh! Earlier stream interaction on NAM at hour 60?

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NAM out to 63 - PNA not as spiked as 06z so storm is not digging as much 

 

S/w weaker which causes heights ahead to be lower 

 

cant post maps today until tonight 

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6 minutes ago, DukeBD said:

Uh oh! Earlier stream interaction on NAM at hour 60?

I wouldn't panic, but yes, you are correct here with regards to the NAM. It's a fine line between needing sufficient amplification to allow the shortwave to gain separation, but we also don't want it too weak since the shortwave gains latitude. Let's see what the globals do. 

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

Folks...if you think there is even a chance you are misinterpreting a model run, please do not share your pbp. Thank you from the other 500 people on the forum right now. :) 

what is a pbp?

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I don’t think you want a flatter PNA initially. We want that shortwave to dig. If it’s flat, it’ll stay higher in latitude, and allow earlier phasing, as the TPV won’t have to travel as far south. 

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22 minutes ago, BL74 said:

I don’t think you want a flatter PNA initially. We want that shortwave to dig. If it’s flat, it’ll stay higher in latitude, and allow earlier phasing, as the TPV won’t have to travel as far south. 

Yeah, I touched on that in my second post with regards to latitude. I think the keyword you used is initially & that's what I missed in my post above. You probably want the shortwave to roll down the periphery of a stronger ridge in order to gain separation. But I think you'd want to see it impacted by the PAC flow soon after, as to push the TPV lobe/baroclinic zone further east.

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worth less than the navgem, but nam is cold baby

 

looks to me the TPV could get involved at just the right moment, fun to watch hi res models once we get closer 

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Surface low starts shunting E/SE at the end of NAM as TPV moves E/SE

 

looks to move E as TPV moves 

 

Interesting Run! Synoptically it’s not as good as 00z/06z, but IMO the NAM is picking up that the air mass is stronger than originally thought and the cold air is going to be tough to erode. 

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7 minutes ago, NSFW Weather Guy said:

worth less than the navgem, but nam is cold baby

While I'm not trusting the NAM in the LR (as we mentioned above) - to be fair, the actual output of the model is generally warmer for most posters south of the LHV. That being said, I'm more encouraged by the continued ECMWF improvements more than anything right now.

 

index.gif

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Great NAM run . UKMET like .

 

Game changer right there  after great FRONTO

 

OBX 

 

namconus_mslp_wind_seus_53.png

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1 minute ago, CCB! said:

While I'm not trusting the NAM in the LR (as we mentioned above) - to be fair, the actual output of the model is generally warmer for most posters south of the LHV. That being said, I'm more encouraged by the continued ECMWF improvements more than anything right now.

 

index.gif

 

 

yea 850s slightly pushed, but i still think nam would be a better run than some of the other guidance, surface was cooler while 850 was a bit warmer, probabaly correlated with the a slightly more elongated SSW/ increase in SW latitude 

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2 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Great NAM run . UKMET like .

 

Game changer right there  after great FRONTO

 

OBX 

 

namconus_mslp_wind_seus_53.png

I don’t get what this game changer is? Explain pls

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