January 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations #2 - Page 16 - Archived Storm Threads - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
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January 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations #2

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Just now, MatthewFerreirawx said:

What a run!

Screen Shot 2019-01-20 at 1.45.48 PM.png

Look at that cold air over Southern Canada, wow!

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1 minute ago, MikeBWeather said:

Ie. early December, early January, cough cough today.

I know, but every storm is different, so hopefully this one works out for us.

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Just now, Mcttothejj said:

Storm Looks warm😕

 

That storm would have temps start around freezing and drop into the upper teens during the event.

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1 minute ago, Mcttothejj said:

On the mslp maps the 32 line is far inland..

its a 170 + plus hour prog. dont fret over that right now. 

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The storm that comes to mind that brought snow to the Gulf Coastline all the way up the east coast was the Blizzard of 1899. Probably not anywhere near that monster, but hey, fun to look at 😛 

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Just now, HibernateUntilWinter said:

The storm that comes to mind that brought snow to the Gulf Coastline all the way up the east coast was the Blizzard of 1899. Probably not anywhere near that monster, but hey, fun to look at 😛 

 

I just posted that lol

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Setup at 500mb looks meh at best to me. Looks like another storm where we are going to have to rely on a perfect TPV phase.

image.png.484768bc387073f276bc050be75b3e2b.png

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Just now, MatthewFerreirawx said:

Another one.619660268_ScreenShot2019-01-20at1_54_52PM.png.4a7a59c0ada2267cdb8643c111f17b5b.png

 

Yeah, I could see that coming.

Moisture and thermal gradient gathering in the Rockies usually means SLP development east of the Mississippi.

BTW look at the Four Corners!
The hits keep on coming?

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The fly in the ointment is definitely wave spacing 

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1 minute ago, MikeBWeather said:

Setup at 500mb looks meh at best to me. Looks like another storm where we are going to have to rely on a perfect TPV phase.

image.png.484768bc387073f276bc050be75b3e2b.png

if my translation is right,  too much phasing would mean a huge rainstorm for many. 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The fly in the ointment is definitely wave spacing 

 

Well.... the prevailing logic is that you can't get a real strong SLP with waves moving that fast.

Recent storms have proved that wrong, however.

We just had the clipper Friday morning and still had a big storm the next night.

You also don't necessarily need a huge, strong storm to get good snowfall totals if you have good thermal packing.

See Feb 9-11, 1994, as an example.

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The fly in the ointment is definitely wave spacing 

 

Would like to sacrifice the 28 for a bigger threat later in that week. 

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4 minutes ago, DualJet said:

if my translation is right,  too much phasing would mean a huge rainstorm for many. 

Honestly looks very similar to the storm that's happening today. Little NAO blocking. A crappy PNA ridge and the S. Stream phasing with the TPV at the perfect time to bring this up the coast. Too early of a phase and we will get a storm like today. Too late of a phase and it will be another DC storm. We can't win this year with a halfway decent setup. Some winters just are not meant to be.

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2 minutes ago, Mikeeng92 said:

 

Would like to sacrifice the 28 for a bigger threat later in that week. 

How many threats are we going to sacrifice before panic ensues?

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2 minutes ago, Mikeeng92 said:

 

Would like to sacrifice the 28 for a bigger threat later in that week. 

I hear ya, but I’m not sacrificing anything on Jan 28th sitting on a seasonal total of 7 

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