January 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations #2 - Page 37 - Archived Storm Threads - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
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January 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations #2

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1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

Care to elaborate on that one? 

 

 

m500za_f210_bg.png

Looked like lower heights/troughing to me past day 12.  Looks good there, but seems to break down thereafter.

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3 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

You love the eps lol

The members are everywhere

 

Anthony , you don`t want that phasing in the M/A , that what the EPS is hinting at. 

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Just now, wxmd529 said:

he was probably referring to the overall 500mb mean towards the end of the run. But as I posted below, even that is wrong

 

Ah. 

 

If one takes a quick look at the za differences from the last run, you can pretty much see that it likely won't evolve that way. 

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Just now, wxmd529 said:

take a look at either the map I posted or @DualJet

 

pacific reshuffles. You'll never get a stable pattern without any changes over a 10 day period 

Thanks.  Appreciate the correction.  Just a little gun shy 

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3 minutes ago, NatPride said:

Looked like lower heights/troughing to me past day 12.  Looks good there, but seems to break down thereafter.

 

Because its a smoothed out ensemble mean showing a huge amount of variance by that time. 

 

I'd focus on the Pacific and whether or not the jet retraction actually takes place. 

 

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And here I am so often taking it on the chin for “fake” snow when this is the current scene in Central Park. 

 

Tisk, tisk...

 

also have they looked at the forecast for the coming 48 hours!?!?

 

09AA1B97-A544-4FA8-8A40-CF5B9FB99ABD.jpeg

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23 minutes ago, MesoBanding said:

And here I am so often taking it on the chin for “fake” snow when this is the current scene in Central Park. 

 

Tisk, tisk...

 

also have they looked at the forecast for the coming 48 hours!?!?

 

09AA1B97-A544-4FA8-8A40-CF5B9FB99ABD.jpeg

The winter jam is Saturday.. they can crank out whales that wont (completely) melt with rain.

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Just now, Oliviajames3 said:

18z has a little something 

 

Arctic wave actually winds up producing for the NYC area. 

gfs_op_apcp_f168_ne.png

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anyone know a website or data source where I can find what days in 2018 has had precipitation rain or snow? not amount of days but actually what days specifically. thanks.

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4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

Arctic wave actually winds up producing for the NYC area. 

gfs_op_apcp_f168_ne.png

That's a SECS too. Looks nice and cold. Probably 6-10" :) 

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