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Eastern US February 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations

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Looks like the euro run has something brewing down south after day 10....

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1 minute ago, Henry said:

Looks like the euro run has something brewing down south after day 10....

That's a warm look. EPS look better.

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1 minute ago, Gian_Tancredo said:

It’s snowing in Washington!

Congrats once again! :) 

 

inxr1Kwbca_h.gif

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We look to be heading into p8 and should continue into p1.

 

So I continue to like the weekend of the 9th and obviously the 16th as those have been favorable phases for east coast snowstorms.

 

So I will take 1 bust , I mean storm at a time. 

 

 

 

Yeh , I see the lakes low sigh ! 

twc_globe_mjo_vp200-10.png

eps_slp_lows_east_43-1.png

eps_slp_lows_east_44-1.png

eps_t850_noram_43.png

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22 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Congrats once again! :) 

 

inxr1Kwbca_h.gif

Hrrr looks north of where the precip is actually falling. Hrrr gives me a coating. 

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Humor me , because when this gets to the day 5 thru 10 this is what the mean should look like.

There is blocking, theres a huge 50/50 and theres a hint of a SE ridge.

And I think you should embrace that.

 

Look at where your mean flow is coming from so that negative with all that LLC air is coming east.

 

I crossed out what I believe is just the model seeking STJ infusion and thats not the trough slipping back. 

 

I believe we are going into p8 and p1 and that Atlantic looks good enough to me.

 

So after we warm I will am looking to score points over those following 15 days. 

 

20190201_073406.png

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1 hour ago, PB GFI said:

We look to be heading into p8 and should continue into p1.

 

So I continue to like the weekend of the 9th and obviously the 16th as those have been favorable phases for east coast snowstorms.

 

So I will take 1 bust , I mean storm at a time. 

 

 

 

Yeh , I see the lakes low sigh ! 

twc_globe_mjo_vp200-10.png

eps_slp_lows_east_43-1.png

eps_slp_lows_east_44-1.png

eps_t850_noram_43.png

 

The GEFS agrees with you thoughts.   Not much snow in the area before the 9th, but it then explodes from the 9th on with a vast majority of the members showing a rather big snowstorm for the mid Atlantic.  Here’s the before and after shots for the 9-17 timeframe  along w all the members totals

67E77700-2086-4999-BFF6-0AB52E0CCED9.png

DDC684C1-B6DE-44A3-9B2B-BB07C715924B.png

BC5DC3A2-C1CF-4ECE-ACBD-7091BBF8749C.png

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5 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

That's bias-corrected. It will slow in phase 7, then move into 8. I don't think we'll see any turn-around toward 6.

 

2elcvbs.gif

Are we in 7 now?

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9 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

That's bias-corrected. It will slow in phase 7, then move into 8. I don't think we'll see any turn-around toward 6.

 

2elcvbs.gif

 

Tom, does the simple and eventual arrival in to phase 8 matter the most to colder/stormier outcomes , or does the amplitude also matter as well in phase 8 for maximum benefit ?

 

Lastly, can you speak about your research into the SOI and whether you have any stats or casualities in which a deep dives into say a -10 to -20 SOI is directly or somewhat indirecty involved causing a spark to storm genesis along the East Coast,  a certain time after the intial dive is achieved with a lag period of course.  I imagine this is related to the STJ, not sure though.  Or , is maybe it is MJO related with a favorable environment for storm development .   

 

Many thanks !     

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

That's bias-corrected. It will slow in phase 7, then move into 8. I don't think we'll see any turn-around toward 6.

 

2elcvbs.gif

Yep, it’s just correcting to the standing wave. 

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Just now, Caminhoneiro443 said:

Around 3/4" OTG, snow will continue into late afternoon. Boom like every snow here this winter

Congrats man enjoy it all

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