February 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations - Page 176 - Archived Storm Threads - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
33andrain

February 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Newman said:

In other news, bring on severe season

day1otlk_1200.gif?1550925959871

 

I don’t remember the last time I saw a risk map like that in February 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NJwxguy78 said:

 

I don’t remember the last time I saw a risk map like that in February 

Two years ago we had a high risk in FL in February.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NJwxguy78 said:

 

I don’t remember the last time I saw a risk map like that in February 

3 years ago today was one hell of a severe outbreak in the Mid Atlantic.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Oh yeah...and the EPS essentially ends winter after the 3/5-3/6 threat. Ridge back in the east by 3/8.

Good I hope it does

 

I will be in Florida anyway for spring training so I can care less about snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Oliviajames3 said:

3 years ago today was one hell of a severe outbreak in the Mid Atlantic.

 

7FFE501D-D266-4660-9227-18CBE242B497.jpeg

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Nothing exciting on the models at all. Looks like the good pattern that people thought that was coming is going to fail.

 

Hopefully things change but this winter has been awful with tons of busts.

 

Bring on baseball. First game is today 😃

This also shows how much more we need to learn when it comes to seasonal forecasting. I had two trains of thought when we had the snowstorm back on November 15th, I said to myself either we have one heck of a winter ahead us with the earlier start or are we going to blow the entire winter on an early snowstorm and that will be it. I honestly thought this would have been a 50"+ winter for the NYC metro area but obviously not the case. I know there is no clear evidence of this but I will say it again I am a big fan of significant/major snowfalls in December which IMO usually leads to a good winter for our area more times then not. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

This also shows how much more we need to learn when it comes to seasonal forecasting. I had two trains of thought when we had the snowstorm back on November 15th, I said to myself either we have one heck of a winter ahead us with the earlier start or are we going to blow the entire winter on an early snowstorm and that will be it. I honestly thought this would have been a 50"+ winter for the NYC metro area but obviously not the case. I know there is no clear evidence of this but I will say it again I am a big fan of significant/major snowfalls in December which IMO usually leads to a good winter for our area more times then not. 

I also had 2 train of thoughts with the November snowfall.

 

So far ever winter that I remember with October or November snowfall has been awful.

 

Maybe 1 day we will beat 1995-1996

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Snowman11 said:

I also had 2 train of thoughts with the November snowfall.

 

So far ever winter that I remember with October or November snowfall has been awful.

 

Maybe 1 day we will beat 1995-1996

 

2012 had November snowfall.
The following winter was not cold, but was snowy and had the big Feb storm,

1995 had November snow, as well.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, MatthewFerreirawx said:

Two years ago we had a high risk in FL in February.

That was January 22nd of that year. That severe season started immensely early. Highest overall tornado count for that calendar year in the last several (1418, next highest 2015 with 1178, others not even breaking 1000)

 

I think we're due for a big time severe season again this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, ru848789 said:

 

Sorry, but I'm nearly certain this is wrong.  Snow cover (when relatively fresh) has a  very high albedo, in which 80-90% of the incoming sun's UV rays during the day are reflected back to the atmosphere and not  absorbed by the ground and converted to IR radiation or heat at the surface.  Snowless ground has an albedo which only reflects maybe 10% of the incident UV radiation, such that most of that is absorbed and converted to IR heat at the surface.  The surface temperature at night depends on the starting point during the day (which is a function of how much heat is created at the surface, which is greatly reduced by snow cover), combined with the change associated with the cold air being advected into the surface layer (which should be equal in snowcover or bare ground cases), plus the amount of heat from the ground that goes into the surface from the ground.  And bare ground will release some heat to the air at night, whereas snow-covered ground will be insulated by the snow cover, which will absorb any heat released by the ground underneath it, not allowing that heat to be transmitted into the surface air layer.   Lots of data has been collected over the years showing temperatures are always significantly colder during the day and night when there is snow cover.  See the excerpt below from the link, below.  

 

"Snow cover, or lack of it, can have a dramatic effect upon temperatures.  For example when there is no snow on the ground at La Crosse, WI, the January daily average temperatures are 11.2 degrees warmer than when there is snow on ground.  January daily minimum temperatures average just 5.3 degrees when there is snow on the ground.  In contrast, when there is no snow on the ground, their January daily minimum temperature is 12 degrees warmer at 17.3 degrees.  Daily January maximum temperatures average 22.9 degrees when there is snow cover.  This daily maximum temperature average rises to 33.3 degrees (10.4 degrees difference) when there is no snow on the ground. "

 

https://addins.kttc.com/blogs/weather/the-role-of-snow-cover-and-temperatures/

I stand corrected. Thanks for the explanation on this. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

 

2012 had November snowfall.
The following winter was not cold, but was snowy and had the big Feb storm,

1995 had November snow, as well.

You are right

We had a big snowstorm in February that winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Analog96 said:

 

2012 had November snowfall.
The following winter was not cold, but was snowy and had the big Feb storm,

1995 had November snow, as well.

I am always concerned when it comes to early snowstorms (prior to December 1st) but the November 15th storm occurred at a much more respectable time then then say the October 29th 2011 snowstorm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Andrew Maddis said:

This January, NYC had 2 separate outbreaks of cold with single digits below 5. FEB 14 2016, NYC reached -1 for the first time since JAN 1994. All 3 times, there was no snow cover at all. Many believe that with snow cover the temps would have been even lower. I dont believe this to be true at all, I believe that a snowless ground yields the coldest temps, not for a prolonged time, but at the height of the CAA...let me explain.

 

Think back to all of the times since JAN 1994 when we had CAA with snow cover, sometimes quite substantial, yet we couldn't go below 5, let alone 0. 

 

Snowcover contains heat. Deep Snowcover contains more heat. The water in the snow is what creates the heat (When I say heat, this is a relative term....you all probably knew that but in case you didn't, well here it is) This is just enough heat to prevent temps from really crashing like they should, the temps near the surface can't get as low because as the water content evaporates from the snow, it creates just enough water vapor to prevent severe cold. 

 

When the ground is snowless and bare, the CAA doesnt have a heat source or moisture to contend with, this is why temps can go as low as they do. The dry surface translates into lower dewpoints hence more diurnal cooling. 

 

The reverse happens during the summer when you have a heat ridge over a drought area. The dewpoints will be lower, but the temp will now be able to go higher. When there is a lot of rainfall (Summer 2018) the dews are high but the actual temps remain below what they would have reached. 

 

I dont care if the snow cover is 2 inches or 200 inches, each snowpack emits heat, thus limiting evaporative cooling. 

 

 

NYC's Arctic outbreaks...with snow depth...
Max..Min precip snow depth...dates

22.....06.....0........0.....0...2/13-14/2016

15......-1.....0........0.....0

35.....13.....0........0.....0

.......................................................................
17.....09.....0........0.....0...1/14-16/2004
18.....02.....0........0.....0
24.....01.....0........0.....0
....................................................................
29.....06...0.06...2.5......3"...1/9-11/2004
15.....01...0.09...3.2......5"
27.....07.....0........0.......4"
........................................................................
42.....32.....T........T........3".....1/25-27/1994
32.....05...0.32...4.5.......7"...
31.....00...0.06...0.1.......7"
.........................................................................
35.....04...0.22...1.0.......5"...1/18-20/1994
10......-2.....0........0........5"
15.....00.....0........0........5"
.......................................................................
23.....04...0.02...0.5.......3"....1/20-22/1985
09......-2.....0........0........3"
31.....09.....0........0........3"
..........................................
............................................................................
35.....19.....0........0.....6"...1/16-18/1982
19.....00.....0........0.....5"
15.....00.....0........0.....5"
..........................................................................
37.....20...0.10...1.0.....1"...12/24-26/1980
20......-1.....0........0......T
23.....08.....0........0......T
.............................................................................
13.....04.....0........0......3"...2/17-19/1979
17.....00.....0........0......3"
28.....17...0.85" 12.7" 16"
.............................................................................
26.....07...0.06...0.6.....6"...1/16-18/1977
12......-2.....0........0......6"
13.....02.....0........0......6"
..........................................................................
28.....05.....0........0.......1"...1/22-24/1976
15......-1.....T........T........1"
22.....14.....0........0........1"
.............................................................................
13.....02.....0........0.......3"...1/8-10/1968
14......-1...0.03...0.4......3"
17.....03.....T........T........3"
............................................................................
44.....25.....0........0.....0...2/7-9/1963
25......-2.....0........0.....0
34.....11......T........T.....0
.........................................................................
24.....03.....0........0.....8"...2/1-3/1961
20......-2.....0........0.....8"
28.....07...0.60...6.0...14"
..........................................................................
23.....06.....0........0.....0...1/14-16/1957
12.....00...0.06...2.0....2"
25.....11...0.16...2.9....4"
........................................................................
28.....10...0.30...3.6.....4"..2/2-4/1955
17.....00.....0........0......3"
37.....08.....0........0......3"
........................................................................
24.....04.....0........0.......9"...1/30-2/1/1948
20.....00.....0........0.......9"
26.....09.....0........0.......9"
.........................................................................
30.....05.....0........0.......2"..2/14-16/1943
08......-8.....0........0.......2"....
22.....04.....0........0.......1"
..........................................................................
25.....08.....T........T.......1"...12/19-21/1942
08......-4.....0........0.......1"
21......-1.....0........0.......1"
...........................................................................
24......-3.....T.........T.......5".....1/23-25/1936
16.....04.....0.........0.......5"
20.....08.....0.........0.......5"
...........................................................................
18.....02.....0.........0.....11".....1/27-29/1935
25......-1.....0.........0....10"
34.....16.....T.........T.......8"
..........................................................................
21......-7.....0.........0.......3".....2/8-10/1934
08....-15.....0.........0.......3"
26......-2.....0.........0.......3"
..........................................................................
12......-3.....0.........0.......9".....12/29-31/1933
15......-6.....T.........T.......9"
42.....15.....0.........0.......7"
........................................................................
36.....03.....0.........0.......0.....1/25-27/1927
25......-1.....0.........0.......0
44.....22...0.02".....T.......0
.........................................................................
42.....04...0.60"...4.9"...10".....1/27-29/1925
14......-2...0.02"...0.2"...10"
34.....13...0.75"...1.3"...11"
.........................................................................
30.....05...0.04"...0.4".....4".....2/16-18/1922
17......-2.....0.........0......4"
34.....08.....0.........0......4"
........................................................................
26......-1.....0.........0.......3".....1/31-2/2/1920
24......-2.....T.........T.......3"
40.....22.....0.........0.......2"
...........................................................................
21.....01...0.05"...1.8".....2".....12/17-19/1919
11......-1.....0.........0.......2"
20.....10...0.11"...1.9".....3"
...........................................................................
31.....00.....0.........0........6".......2/4-6/1918
04......-6.....0.........0........6"
38.....01.....0.........0........5"
...........................................................................
08......-6.....0.12"...2.0".....3".....12/29-1/4 1917-18
02.....-13......0.........0.......3"
06......-7.......0.........0.......3"
10......-4.......0.........0.......3"
10.....02.......T.........T.......3"
12.....00.......0.........0.......2"
18......-3.......0.........0.......2"
.............................................
23.....08.....0.........0........0......2/11-13/1917
12.....03.....0.........0........0
24.....00.....0.........0........0
............................................
21.....02......T.........T.......T.....2/11-13/1914
10......-3......0........0.......T
26......-1...0.29"....1.6"....2"
...............................................
33.....09......T.........T.......0.....01/12-14/1914
09......-3......0........0.......0
18......-5......0........0.......0
............................................
19.....05....0.35"....3.5"....3".....1/12-14/1912
08......-3......0.........0.......3"
23.....02......0.........0.......2"
.........................................
26.....12......0.........0.......T.....2/9-11/1912
13.....00......0.........0.......T
21......-1......0.........0.......T
..............................................
11......-2.......0........0.....6" est...2/9-13/1899
07......-6.......0........0.....6" est
09......-2.......0........0.....6" est
09.....04.....0.23....5.3...10" est
11.....06.....0.47...10.7...20" est
..............................................
44.....06.....0.02....0.5....T...2/16-18/1896
07......-5........0........0.....T
26.....01........0........0.....T
.....................................................................

18.....06........0........0.....0...1/5-7/1896
12......-2........0........0.....0
25.....06........0........0.....0
...............................................
11.....00........0........0....3" est...2/5-8/1895
10......-4.......0........0....3" est
13.....06.....0.17....2.5..5" est
08.....02.....0.13....2.5..7" est
...............................................
16.....01........0........0.....T est...1/21-23/1888
14.....00........0........0.....T est
24.....07........0........0.....T est
.............................................
12.....00.....0.10....1.0"....4" est...2/4-6/1886
07......-4........0........0......4" est
20.....03.....0.01"....0.2"...4" est
...............................................
16.....07........0........0.....3" est...1/11-13/1886
08.....02........0........0.....2" est
14.....02........0........0.....2" est...
...............................................
16......-1........0........0.....T...12/19-21/1884
07......-3........0........0.....T
36.....07........0........0.....T
...................................................
25.....10........0........0.....6" est...12/22-24/1883
10......-1.....0.01....0.1....6" est
31.....07.....0.80....7.5"..12" est
..............................................
13.....00........0........0.....0-t  est 1/23-25/1882
06......-6........0........0.....0
29.....03.....0.32....0.5....T est...
..........................................
21.....03.....0.10....2.0"est 4" est...2/1-3/1881
09......-3........0........0......3" est
18.....01........0........0......3" est
.......................................
32.....10........0.........0......T est...12/28-1/1/1880-81
10.....04.....0.28....4.0".....4" est
04......-6........0.........0......3" est
10.....03........0.........0......3" est
16.....01........0.........0......2" est
..........................................
33.....03.....0.15"....0.0"....2" est...1/2-4/1879
07......-4........0.........0......2" est
26.....06........0.........0......1" est

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Crossbowftw3 said:

That was January 22nd of that year. That severe season started immensely early. Highest overall tornado count for that calendar year in the last several (1418, next highest 2015 with 1178, others not even breaking 1000)

 

I think we're due for a big time severe season again this year.

Ohh oops..football was a big deal like hence why I thought it was Feb..thanks for the correction!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it possible that snow cover to the north helps/helped bring temperatures close to zero in/around NYC, even when there’s an absence of snow cover in the metro area? Can advective cold blowing south over hundreds of miles of snowpack even be warmed by a few miles of bare ground and UHI (in some areas)?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

I also had 2 train of thoughts with the November snowfall.

 

So far ever winter that I remember with October or November snowfall has been awful.

 

Maybe 1 day we will beat 1995-1996

The good winters will return again they always do, its not a matter of if but when.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...