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February 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations


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first one to complain about “nickel and dime” events get banished 

Below is a signal i've truly yet to see all winter long; a stable constructive interference, intra-seasonal signal with what also looks like a dual-low frequency mode along and east of 180 degrees. Th

Reiterating a point I mentioned in a tweet the other day, I'm not overly enthused by this pattern due in part to the largely -PNA & overall, a mid latitude zonal height field. That being said, you

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Just now, samsara2 said:

It's almost like these events are fluid situations and perturbations in the earlier outcomes cause much larger changes thereafter... who knew!

 

I've been posting this ad nauseum, but what happens with one wave effects the next.  

If a model screws up wave a, other than pure random luck, it then cannot be correct with wave b!

Because there are so many waves in this ridiculously-fast moving pattern, I expect to continue to see rapid changes on the modeling.

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Good stuff on the models today. This is what happens when a huge EPO and some nao help work in tandem. We got 2 threats. The 2nd wave looks to have the better airmass and higher ceiling although models are a bit flat right now. The first wave is just gonna depend where that gradient sets up. Both look good right now imo 

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2 minutes ago, CooL said:

Good stuff on the models today. This is what happens when a huge EPO and some nao help work in tandem. We got 2 threats. The 2nd wave looks to have the better airmass and higher ceiling although models are a bit flat right now. The first wave is just gonna depend where that gradient sets up. Both look good right now imo 

CooL!

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1 minute ago, CooL said:

Good stuff on the models today. This is what happens when a huge EPO and some nao help work in tandem. We got 2 threats. The 2nd wave looks to have the better airmass and higher ceiling although models are a bit flat right now. The first wave is just gonna depend where that gradient sets up. Both look good right now imo 

 

This is the first time you've really been on board since early December!

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