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February 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations


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5 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Love this. The Euro and EPS both moved toward the Ukie, GEFS, GEFS and ICON, all of which moved further SE and show a significant winter storm. Yet, the conclusion drawn is that this [event] looks like a Sussex County and Poconos crush job? :huh: I like how, it isn't even to just say it's looking like a "north and west of 95 crush job," but for added effect, you make it a crush job 100 miles away from the cities, Then, just to really twist the dagger, you reference how the 3/6 threat is "absolutely" dead in the next post. This was good work. :) 

Everything is pretty close to the euro track and it’s thermals now. We don’t have a high pressure to the north for this event, which would lock in low level cold. I’m sorry, I just don’t agree that this is trending in a good direction for the metro. 

 

I dont know how you can look at this with such positivity. The threat on the 6th has been out to sea for days now. The Monday event continues to trend warmer on the American guidance. You get so argumentative when posters don’t agree with your thinking. I think @earthlight has been very fair in his responses today. It’s not a threat for us. 

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first one to complain about “nickel and dime” events get banished 

Below is a signal i've truly yet to see all winter long; a stable constructive interference, intra-seasonal signal with what also looks like a dual-low frequency mode along and east of 180 degrees. Th

Reiterating a point I mentioned in a tweet the other day, I'm not overly enthused by this pattern due in part to the largely -PNA & overall, a mid latitude zonal height field. That being said, you

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6 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

We don't even need a shift of 50 miles. The majority of the guidance SHOWS A SNOW STORM Monday. In fact, the models which do not are the Euro, JMA and Navgem. Have fun with that consensus. :lol: I feel like this place has become the twilight zone. People act as though the 90 hour Euro/EPS IS showing the future. It's like no other model exists. Hello? Is this thing on?

 

i never understood why people can’t just “track”.... this whole thing is about “tracking”  and no matter what any Met or otherwise tells you, forecasting is at best an educated guess with EC snowstorms especially, anyone to claim otherwise is full of shit. every major model could show 12” by tomorrow, and saturday could be OTS... enjoy the chase, and stop needing instant gratification on right/wrong models 

 

^ general statement lol.. not at you 

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

This setup isn't even close to that setup AND on top of it, the Monday system isn't even in the NAM's range yet. It is an eternity away and yet we're convinced there is "nothing to stop it from coming NW in future runs" even though it went SE on most guidance today. And "it looks like a sussex and poconos crush job." Cmon my friends. We all know how bad this Winter has been but please try to be impartial as we track this thing. It may very well end up not impacting NYC, but to call it at 90 hours is absurd.

 

I don't mean it's close to that setup.

The point I am trying to bring home is that riding ANY model exclusively when a lot of other guidance doesn't agree with it can be very dangerous.

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Everything is pretty close to the euro track and it’s thermals now. We don’t have a high pressure to the north for this event, which would lock in low level cold. I’m sorry, I just don’t agree that this is trending in a good direction for the metro. 

 

I dont know how you can look at this with such positivity. The threat on the 6th has been out to sea for days now. The Monday event continues to trend warmer on the American guidance. You get so argumentative when posters don’t agree with your thinking. I think @earthlight has been very fair in his responses today. It’s not a threat for us. 

This...is just flat out untrue. Admit it. As in, very little to NOTHING has the Euro track. Just the Navy and the JMA. Okay, sorry, and the CMC, but its own ensembles are strongly against it.

 

I gave up on the 6th yesterday earlier in the day. I think Monday is our last real threat of the Winter tbh.

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1 hour ago, 33andrain said:

Meh. Much of this is from the systems tonight and tomorrow night. There isn't much spread o the mslp's for Monday unfortunately and there isn't much snow for the population centers. You're in a good spot though as usual. :) 

 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

Yes. I posted this to nsfw earlier when we were discussing how bad the EPS looks for the metro. What's the point? As I was doing EPS pbp, I clearly noted the improvements aloft, which are clear and obvious, but also indicated how bad the run looked still for the coast.

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

This...is just flat out untrue. Admit it. As in, very little to NOTHING has the Euro track. Just the Navy and the JMA. Okay, sorry, and the CMC, but its own ensembles are strongly against it.

 

I gave up on the 6th yesterday earlier in the day. I think Monday is our last real threat of the Winter tbh.

I definitely do not agree with the bolded.

But to your other points, to have only the JMA and CMC on your side is not really confidence-inspiring,
That's why I'd be really careful riding the EURO, especially considering it has also come SE in recent runs.

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3 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

 

I don't mean it's close to that setup.

The point I am trying to bring home is that riding ANY model exclusively when a lot of other guidance doesn't agree with it can be very dangerous.

I am all for Euro hugging inside of 48 hours. 90 hours? Not a chance. If anything, I find it suspect that the EPS mslp's are all so clustered at such a long range. Tells me there may be some following of the leader going on. The EPS has been known to do this before.

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14 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Love this. The Euro and EPS both moved toward the Ukie, GEFS, GEFS and ICON, all of which moved further SE and show a significant winter storm. Yet, the conclusion drawn is that this [event] looks like a Sussex County and Poconos crush job? :huh: I like how, it isn't even to just say it's looking like a "north and west of 95 crush job," but for added effect, you make it a crush job 100 miles away from the cities, Then, just to really twist the dagger, you reference how the 3/6 threat is "absolutely" dead in the next post. This was good work. :) 

 

Just now, 33andrain said:

Yes. I posted this to nsfw earlier when we were discussing how bad the EPS looks for the metro. What's the point? As I was doing EPS pbp, I clearly noted the improvements aloft, which are clear and obvious, but also indicated how bad the run looked still for the coast.

Not sure why I got grief when I said something similar about the eps. The GEFS are always going to be cold and snowy, they been that way since December. Only issue now is does this good off snj coast or the Delmarva. Either track looks rainy for the metro 

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

I am all for Euro hugging inside of 48 hours. 90 hours? Not a chance. If anything, I find it suspect that the EPS mslp's are all so clustered at such a long range. Tells me there may be some following of the leader going on. The EPS has been known to do this before.

 

It's also not JUST "90 hours".  It's 90 hours with two waves coming beforehand.

BIG, BIG difference, as each prior wave can impact the evolution of subsequent wave(s).

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Just now, Allsnow said:

 

Not sure why I got grief when I said something similar about the eps. The GEFS are always going to be cold and snowy, they been that way since December. Only issue now is does this good off snj coast or the Delmarva. Either track looks rainy for the metro 

My friend, you're getting grief not because you said the EPS was bad, but because you said, "looking like this will be a sussex and poconos crush job." I just don't know how you could draw this conclusion 90 hours out.

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Just now, 33andrain said:

My friend, you're getting grief not because you said the EPS was bad, but because you said, "looking like this will be a sussex and poconos crush job." I just don't know how you could draw this conclusion 90 hours out.

But it seems you’re also drawing conclusions that certain models will not be right and that this will shift SE. 

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@33andrain & @Allsnow - you guys are obviously in disagreement, but you're not that far off. Let's not dig our heels in too much though & leave our minds open. I think Tim's argument is less about X model shows this, it's more about the across the board model trends over the past two days leading to a warmer solution. That's the camp I lean towards for reasons discussed over the last few days. But Geoff's argument is a good one too in that the major trends have subsided & we may only see wobbles now in projected outcome on guidance. For most posters in the I-95 corridor, a wobble in the right direction equates to an area wide significant snowstorm.

 

It's anyone's prerogative to take a stand & declare they believe what's going to happen. But I'll just advise, let's wait until tomorrow before we make any final declaration.

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5 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

My friend, you're getting grief not because you said the EPS was bad, but because you said, "looking like this will be a sussex and poconos crush job." I just don't know how you could draw this conclusion 90 hours out.

Easily, when it fits the pattern being displayed. Also add in the fact that every southwest has been stronger then forecasted at this lead time. 

 

This is also my opinion at this time and how I think it will play out. I’m not being negative, it’s how I feel it will track. I didn’t know I had to jazz up my posts for the snow fans. 

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2 minutes ago, CCB! said:

@33andrain & @Allsnow - you guys are obviously in disagreement, but you're not that far off. Let's not dig our heels in too much though & leave our minds open. I think Tim's argument is less about X model shows this, it's more about the across the board model trends over the past two days leading to a warmer solution. That's the camp I lean towards for reasons discussed over the last few days. But Geoff's argument is a good one too in that the major trends have subsided & we may only see wobbles now in projected outcome on guidance. For most posters in the I-95 corridor, a wobble in the right direction equates to an area wide significant snowstorm.

 

It's anyone's prerogative to take a stand & declare they believe what's going to happen. But I'll just advise, let's wait until tomorrow before we make any final declaration.

 

Even as it is right now, I think a consensus is for advisory level snowfall if we take the middle ground,

So it's definitely tracakble, especially in this winter.

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Just now, Gian_Tancredo said:

Is the 32k NAM or the 12k the better NAM? Asking this because 12k gives me several hours of snow and 32k gives me basically none.

 

The 32k NAM is not really used at all for operational forecasts.

The 12K NAM is the operational, regular NAM.

The 3K NAM is the high-res NAM.  I hope that helps.

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1 minute ago, Gian_Tancredo said:

Is the 32k NAM or the 12k the better NAM? Asking this because 12k gives me several hours of snow tonight and 32k gives me basically none.

3k is the his res model. Biases are the 12k is usually more amped (more precip) and 3k is less amped (less precip). 

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3 minutes ago, Gian_Tancredo said:

Is the 32k NAM or the 12k the better NAM? Asking this because 12k gives me several hours of snow tonight and 32k gives me basically none.

The higher the #, the lower the resolution, the less reliable in terms of local accuracy... I know you're trying to find the model with the highest snow for your area. But if you're looking for more realistic expectations, better to look for an actual forecast. Better yet, continue to build your skills & make yourself a better forecaster :)

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