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February 2019 Forecast Discussion and Observations


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first one to complain about “nickel and dime” events get banished 

Below is a signal i've truly yet to see all winter long; a stable constructive interference, intra-seasonal signal with what also looks like a dual-low frequency mode along and east of 180 degrees. Th

Reiterating a point I mentioned in a tweet the other day, I'm not overly enthused by this pattern due in part to the largely -PNA & overall, a mid latitude zonal height field. That being said, you

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Some of the eps members looked like this. Very possible with southeast ridge and strength of low 

 

Has a lot more to do with the evolution in the Pac and Canada - they completely control the SE ridge

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Some of the eps members looked like this. Very possible with southeast ridge and strength of low 

You did say this yesterday not to get our hopes up. Very volatile pattern. 

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15 minutes ago, Nchaboy said:

This might be a dumb question but what caused the 50/50 not to be in the right spot in this run? 

I might be wrong, but to my eyes it seems that the 50/50 was in the right spot for much of the run, but because there was less blocking over Greenland, the low just moved before the storm arrived. There's definitely a great 50/50 feature early in the 12z run. It looks like there's a second low pressure that moves in behind the initial low to reinforce 50/50 after the first one begins moving out. The reason that it moves in behind the first low as a separate system is because blocking separates them. It's this second low that keeps the 50/50 low pressure going for so long in the 06z run. In the 12z run, both lows consolidate early because of lack of blocking and move out early, also, because of lack of blocking. I hope this is correct. 

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6 minutes ago, Oglem said:

Hey everyone, I'm going to try to analyze this. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but here goes:

image.png.29ec7f571199d10b8ee12b6cee7261c1.png

From what I can tell, these are the 3 crucial differences on the 12z GFS vs 00z and 06z:

 

1. EPO ridge doesn't reach as far into Alaska. It is a bit flatter. It's also more North-South oriented. We want it oriented a bit more West-East to tilt the Western trough positive, which allows our shortwave to maintain positive tilt for longer

 

2. There was less blocking over top in 12z in Northern Canada.  

 

3.  Our 50/50 Low has moved significantly East compared to 06z, and this means that the high in SE Canada that should be supplying us with cold is now shifted to the East, opening the way for the storm to cut to our West vs 06z. 

 

 

Excellent analysis - all of these changes led to a different evolution. 

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11 minutes ago, Oglem said:

I might be wrong, but to my eyes it seems that the 50/50 was in the right spot for much of the run, but because there was less blocking over Greenland, the low just moved before the storm arrived. There's definitely a great 50/50 feature early in the 12z run. It looks like there's a second low pressure that moves in behind the initial low to reinforce 50/50 after the first one begins moving out. The reason that it moves in behind the first low as a separate system is because blocking separates them. It's this second low that keeps the 50/50 low pressure going for so long in the 06z run. In the 12z run, both lows consolidate early because of lack of blocking and move out early, also, because of lack of blocking. I hope this is correct. 

Great job btw !! And yea that’s what it looks like. 

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14 minutes ago, ThunderSnow4 said:

 Wasn’t it supposed to overtake the GFS a while ago? If not can someone fill me in on when that take over will commence? It has performed very poorly in our neck of the woods. 

Hopefully never?

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35 minutes ago, Nchaboy said:

Great job btw !! And yea that’s what it looks like. 

Thanks! I owe most of my weather knowledge to reading the posts of the mets and seasoned amateurs on this site. This is far and away the best weather&meteorology site out there. There's just so much high quality information here. 

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