February 10-12, 2019 -- Mixed Bag Event - Page 22 - Archived Storm Threads - 33andrain Weather Discussion Community Jump to content
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February 10-12, 2019 -- Mixed Bag Event

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49 minutes ago, AllanWeather NYC said:

 

Here's my first call. If we've learned something this winter, it's to be safe. I'll adjust up if I need to tomorrow.

Great maps as always. Looks solid with the highest totals at the far NW side of NYC and the mention of sleet which could be the big story. 

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53 minutes ago, Psv said:

 

A bit more aggressive than I would go, unless a large portion of that snow is actually sleet. 

Has to be sleet. I only see 1” maybe 2” tops of snow. Then another 2” of sleet before we go to rain around 6-8pm Tuesday night. 

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Very nice discussion from the NWS-Philly office...

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
356 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure located off the Middle Atlantic coast this afternoon
will continue to drift southeastward tonight and Monday. Weak warm
advection on the back side of the high is expected to affect our
region tonight. Arctic high pressure sliding from Ontario to Quebec
should begin to nose down into our area on Monday.

Light precipitation approaching from the Ohio River Valley is
expected to overspread our region late this evening. We are
anticipating light snow in eastern Pennsylvania, and in northern
and central New Jersey. Snow, sleet and freezing rain are expected
for northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey. The
mixed precipitation should change to all rain in the Maryland
counties of Talbot and Caroline, the southern half of Delaware and
Cape May County in New Jersey toward morning.

The precipitation is forecast to end on Monday morning across most
of eastern Pennsylvania, and northern and central New Jersey. The
light wintry mix should linger during the morning in parts of
northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey.

As broad low pressure begins to approach from the west, the
precipitation will begin to spread back to the north on Monday
afternoon, with light snow returning to eastern Pennsylvania, and to
northern and central New Jersey. A light wintry mix, favoring rain,
should continue in our southern counties.

The expected snow totals in the northern half of our forecast area
for tonight do not warrant an advisory. We will keep the Winter
Weather Advisory in place for the southern half of our region from
1000 PM this evening until noon on Monday. We have expanded the
advisory to include the Maryland counties of Talbot and Caroline,
and Sussex County, Delaware (except for the beaches) due to the
expectation of a light glaze of ice in parts of those counties.

Low temperatures for tonight should favor the 20s and lower 30s with
a light and variable wind. A northeast wind around 5 to 10 MPH is
forecast to develop on Monday. High temperatures will likely be in
the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
This portion of the discussion will focus on the 2nd of the one-two
punch.

Synoptically...The period starts with a warm front well to our south
and high pressure centered well to our north. The front will be
attached to a low west of the Mississippi. This low will track
northeast and be positioned near the Great Lakes 24 hours later, on
Tuesday evening. At this time, a secondary low will develop near the
coast of NJ and track northeast Tuesday night.

Impacts...This event will cross the Tuesday morning commute as well
as the Tuesday evening commute. For the I95 corridor, the morning
commute will experience the most impacts. Further north and west,
the morning commute will be a snowy one and the evening one could be
a mixed bag of snow, ice and freezing rain.

Headlines...Winter Storm Watch posted for the southern Poconos and
NW NJ to account for both the snow and ice.

Snow/sleet amounts...Ranging from 5 to 8 across the Southern Poconos
and NW NJ, 3 to 5 across Berks and the Lehigh Valley, then 2 to 4
down to I95. 1 to 2 when you cross the river into NJ and also for
northern Delmarva. An inch or less south and east of there.

Freezing rain...Tricky here at this point and depends on the
strength of the low-level warm nose. For now, have .2/tenths of
ice across the Southern Poconos and NW NJ, .1 to .2/tenths
across Berks, the Lehigh Valley and Morris County in NJ, a trace
to a .1/tenth down to the urban I95 corridor, and then a trace
south of there. Cape May county and Sussex county may not see
much snow or ice at all.

For the Poconos and NW NJ, it`s not out of the realm of
possibility of receiving more ice. Some of the forecast
soundings over the last two runs have up to .4/tenths.

Rain...Not sure the Poconos will ever go over to all rain. The
Lehigh Valley and Berks are forecast to change over late Tuesday,
and the urban corridor around midday Tuesday.

QPF...This is not a weak/dry system. Total QPF, when all said
and done will be between 1.00 and 2.00 inches. Where the ptype
is mainly liquid, expect minor flooding in the most prone areas.
Even across locals that get accumulating snow, moderate to
heavy rain is possible after the changeover.

Transitions...As stated, the frozen/freezing may never change over
across the far north. For the Lehigh Valley, going with all snow
Monday night into Tuesday morning and transitioning to all rain
Tuesday afternoon. Across the urban and I95 region, going with snow
Monday night to a mix by daybreak Tuesday, followed by all rain in
the afternoon. The Tuesday morning commute looks nasty for this
area. Across the coastal plain and our southern Delmarva zones,
going with snow to rain on Monday night. Looks like all rain here
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

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2 minutes ago, LowerHudsWXGeek said:

So how much of the snow in the NWS snowfall forecast do you think is sleet?1228027414_Screenshot2019-02-10at6_53_29PM.png.e4f55b17f72d8dea47f6b4e30b63f9a9.png

Possibly around a 0.5-1.5”

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Just now, Allsnow said:

18z euro is still very cold at the surface. Nyc goes above 32 between 5-7pm tue 

Lines up with 3k nam changeover timeframe as well. 

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Just now, uofmiami said:

Lines up with 3k nam changeover timeframe as well. 

We are going to Pelt away for a while after the initial thump of snow 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z euro is still very cold at the surface. Nyc goes above 32 between 5-7pm tue 

 

download (9).gif

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16 minutes ago, MatthewFerreirawx said:

Regional snowfall total through 7PM Wednesday.

image.png

With this map and the slightly more bullish map from OKX I posted above, it makes me wonder why Northampton, Lehigh and Berks and maybe Warren aren't under watches, as 6" are forecast for most/parts of those counties.  Also, notice the NWS doesn't have any of those goofy near-discontinuities where frozen precip drops off precipitously for a narrow area (like NYC Metro) and then goes back up - those generally don't make sense for a macro scale forecast.  

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1 hour ago, ru848789 said:

With this map and the slightly more bullish map from OKX I posted above, it makes me wonder why Northampton, Lehigh and Berks and maybe Warren aren't under watches, as 6" are forecast for most/parts of those counties.  Also, notice the NWS doesn't have any of those goofy near-discontinuities where frozen precip drops off precipitously for a narrow area (like NYC Metro) and then goes back up - those generally don't make sense for a macro scale forecast.  

I talked to NWS MT Holly and they indicated they are waiting for further model guidance to become confident on warning criteria vs. advisory.  Thought it was strange myself but they are probably waiting to see if the 00Z suite comes in as cold or not.  

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Just now, LVWeather23 said:

I talked to NWS MT Holly and they indicated they are waiting for further model guidance to become confident on warning criteria vs. advisory.  Thought it was strange myself but they are probably waiting to see if the 00Z suite comes in as cold or not.  

 

It is a bit strange because as far as I recall, you generally issue the watch because "it's only a watch" and watches can be downgraded.

BUT at least the map was coordinated well today.

Anyone remember those ridiculous maps where there are watches 100 miles south and north and a huge hole in the middle? LOL

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