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Allsnow

Southwest Flow Event Potential 2-17/2-18

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Models have been trending stronger with a southwest flow event for Sunday. Current thinking is a swath of accumulating snow from Chicago to Southern New England. Happy tracking everyone! 

3B3CA243-3CC0-481A-B9DD-74E93088EDEF.png

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18z euro flatter then the Gfs. Swath of 2-4 inches from central Pa into Nyc

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Just now, Allsnow said:

18z euro flatter then the Gfs. Swath of 2-4 inches from central Pa into Nyc

Anything south of 78 in PA?

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6 minutes ago, Oliviajames3 said:

Anything south of 78 in PA?

Looks like about a inch for you

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The euro gets the primary to just south of Pitt, while the Gfs gets it to Scranton 

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18z EURO is actually a Five Boroughs special. EURO is hardly ever warmer than GFS so this is likely a sign (IMO) the American models will adjust colder. 

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59 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z euro flatter then the Gfs. Swath of 2-4 inches from central Pa into Nyc

How much for Metuchen??!!

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2 minutes ago, ru848789 said:

How much for Metuchen??!!

1-2... but eps was very meh with less then a inch. Swath of snow north of us 

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24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

1-2... but eps was very meh with less then a inch. Swath of snow north of us 

We're at about 10.5" this season and if we can get 2" from this storm, then 3" Wednesday and maybe 2" from next weekend, all of a sudden, we're at 17.5", which isn't that far behind normal (27" for NB).  Then, March overperforming or sneaking in one 10" storm somewhere and we're there, despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth.  

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The fetch is more potent off the Gulf by 36 hours with the STJ more amped (?) resulting in much more QPF over the lower OV vs. 18z on 00zNAM.


The high is also stronger over the GL / NE. 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_36.png

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MUCH wetter than 18z.

 

namconus_mslp_pwata_us_39.png

namconus_mslp_pwata_us_41.png

 

Need this to happen even earlier translating into a more potent comma head for optimal impact but this is a start. 

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By 45 hrs not only is 00z significantly more amped and wetter, it is also further S with the actual low by about 150 miles (SW, rather). NRN KY at 45 vs somewhere between Columbus and Pittsburgh at same time 18z. 

 

namconus_mslp_pwata_us_40.png

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Just now, samsara2 said:

MUCH wetter than 18z.

 

namconus_mslp_pwata_us_39.png

namconus_mslp_pwata_us_41.png

 

Need this to happen even earlier translating into a more potent comma head for optimal impact but this is a start. 

Not gonna happen in my opinion. The flow is is not supportive of a deep Gulf connection. The source region is actually the much drier Southwest, especially when downsloping effects are considered. This system is not likely to be very wet at all, especially since there will be a broad area of little to no forcing almost across our board area as we get split between the better H5 PVA/lower and mid-level FGEN and then the developing coastal. This is yet another nuisance event with likely two or three inches the absolute max for our area.

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The thermals should also end up verifying a bit warmer than currently progged based on the hemispheric and tropical states. Again, just my opinion.

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Nam is rain for the majority of the area. Swath of snow runs from central Ny into mass 

6E004994-B743-4CA6-831E-130FFAF38AF8.gif

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nam is rain for the majority of the area. Swath of snow runs from central Ny into mass 

6E004994-B743-4CA6-831E-130FFAF38AF8.gif

Typical SWFE

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I think the 00z was actually a big improvement despite the poor surface. The surface low should be appearing off VA in the current frame and I'd guess the current coastal is going to trend to that position by verification. Over the last few runs it has already drifted most of the way to that position. 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_43.png

 

vs 3 runs ago

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_49.png

 

Of course, I could be wrong! This would also mean the primary is going to stay farther to the west and die out in the Ohio Valley somewhere between St. Louis and Louisville. The trend there has been similar (way southwest). 

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5 minutes ago, samsara2 said:

I think the 00z was actually a big improvement despite the poor surface. The surface low should be appearing off VA in the current frame and I'd guess the current coastal is going to trend to that position by verification. Over the last few runs it has already drifted most of the way to that position. 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_43.png

 

vs 3 runs ago

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_49.png

 

Of course, I could be wrong! This would also mean the primary is going to stay farther to the west and die out in the Ohio Valley somewhere between St. Louis and Louisville. The trend there has been similar (way southwest). 

The evolution isn’t much different at all; it’s just slower overall which makes direct frame to frame comparisons misleading.

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I strongly disagree. QPF increased quite dramatically on the northern side of the eventual coastal. Even NYC is wetter even though this run it is not whiter. But the biggest shift was to our south where the .5 line went from NC all the way to Central VA and Delaware. 

 

namconus_apcpn_us_24.png

 

namconus_apcpn_us_26.png

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